The UFC 296 Main Card is just around the corner as we're set to bring you a prediction and pick for the Featured Prelim bout of the night, taking place in the Featherweight (145) Division. Former title challenger and No. 6-ranked Josh Emmett will square off against No. 10-ranked Bryce Mitchell on short notice. The Main Card follows immediately after. Check out our UFC odds series for our Emmett-Mitchell prediction and pick.
Josh Emmett (18-4) comes into this fight with a 9-4 UFC record en route to challenging for the featherweight belt. His lost that fight to Yair Rodriguez in a submission and lost his most recent bout against Ilia Topuria via unanimous decision. Prior to that, he rode a five-fight winning streak and still has title hopes if he can pull this win off as an underdog against Mitchell. Josh Emmett stands 5'6″ with a 70-inch reach.
Bryce Mitchell (16-1) has an impressive 7-1 record in the UFC and makes this walk on about a week's notice after Giga Chikadze had to withdraw from the original bout. Mitchell suffered his first UFC loss to Ilia Topuria in an overall poor showing. His last fight, he was able to get the job done against a surging Dan Ige as he returned from injury. Now, he steps in on short notice looking to leapfrog his way into the top-five rankings. Mitchell stands 5'10” with a 70-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 296 Odds: Josh Emmett-Bryce Mitchell Odds
Josh Emmett: +185
Bryce Mitchell: -225
Over 2.5 rounds: -195
Under 2.5 rounds: +150
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Why Josh Emmett Will Win
Josh Emmett has taken a ton of damage over his last two losses to Yair Rodriguez and Ilia Topuria. While his cardio and motor are unmatched, Emmett was at a big speed disadvantage against both of those opponents. He's not to quickest-moving striker and he works hard to get inside on opponents, but his frame prevents him from cutting angles well enough to counteract fluid strikers. Bryce Mitchell isn't as twitchy as Rodriguez and Topuria, so Emmett may have more success cutting the angles and getting Mitchell up against the cage. Still, he was preparing for an orthodox striker in Giga Chikadze and will now have to pivot to facing a stance-switching southpaw in Mitchell.
While Emmett may not be as fluid of a striker, he closes distance in blistering speed and has crazy power behind his shots. He leads the featherweight division all-time in knockdowns and his power will certainly play a huge role in this fight as Mitchell tries to wrap his hands around Emmett. Emmett is also a terrific wrestler and will be very hard from Mitchell to bring down. If he can time his entries right and not let Mitchell circle on the outside of him, Josh Emmett could stand to see a lot of success from level-changing and striking. With his recent wars and how tough Bryce Mitchell is, he'll want to avoid a slug fest again here.
Why Bryce Mitchell Will Win
Even Bryce Mitchell admitted that he wasn't 100% healthy heading into his fight with Ilia Topuria, but the performance still exposed some of the holes in Bryce Mitchell's game when faced with a title challenger like Topuria. Of course, Emmett met the same fate at Topuria's hands, but Bryce Mitchell was able to bounce back with a win over Dan Ige and he's clearly healthy if he's accepting this fight on short notice. While he's not the biggest power puncher, Bryce Mitchell is arguably the best submission artist of the division and he'll be in his world if this fight hits the ground. He leads all UFC featherweights in control time from top position.
It's interesting that Mitchell decided to take this fight on a week's notice against such a dangerous opponent in Emmett, but clearly he sees something he likes in the stylistic matchup and benefits if he can pull off the win. Mitchell should look to close the distance and not let Emmett reel off his boxing combinations. While Mitchell may have a hard time finding the takedowns in open space, he could benefit from wrestling along the cage as the taller guy and try to break Emmett down that way. Still, he'll have to conserve his energy knowing Emmett has a crazy motor in a three-round environment. If Bryce Mitchell can stay dangerous with his submission attempts, he should win this fight.
Final Josh Emmett-Bryce Mitchell Prediction & Pick
This is a very interesting spot for Bryce Mitchell on a week's notice, but he stands to gain huge momentum with the UFC is he's able to beat Emmett and jump into title contention. Certainly, Bryce Mitchell will be the better submission artist in this fight and he's usually able to do much more with opponents once he has them on the ground. However, we've seen Mitchell struggle against much stronger opponents and he could have a tough time bringing Emmett down in this fight.
On the other side, Josh Emmett only has to land one punch to completely change the direction of this fight. If he's able to knock Mitchell down and jump on top of him, it's hard to imagine Josh Emmett not finishing the fight. For our prediction, we'll take a chance on the underdog as he comes in with a full training camp.
Final Josh Emmett-Bryce Mitchell Prediction & Pick: Josh Emmett (+185)
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