It is unlikely the Boston Red Sox are going to make a move this offseason that will be met with harmonious approval. Fans' confidence in ownership remains low and may never fully be repaired. But many will be grateful to see the team at least get in on MLB free agency.

After making just a couple of minor signings, Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow made his first big addition. Boston has agreed to a two-year, $38.5 million contract with former All-Star pitcher Lucas Giolito. On the surface, this is another potential dagger that will be plunged into Red Sox Nation.

Such an acquisition could suggest that more dependable options like Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell are not really on management's radar. A short-term gamble could be more appealing than a long-term investment for a proven World Series champion and multi-time Cy Young. In which case, the organization would remain under heavy scrutiny for not making a more drastic philosophical change.

Those are hypotheticals that, even if proven true, should not cloud one's judgment on this particular signing. A disappointing 2022 and a ghastly second half with the Los Angeles Angels and Cleveland Guardians overshadows the consistent success Giolito enjoyed with the Chicago White Sox from 2019-21. It is possible that the right-handed starter is on a decline from which he will never recover, but there are reasons to believe this union works out in 2024.

Boston baseball fans have been waiting a while for something notable to happen this offseason, so let's dig into this acquisition a little more. Bear with me, as I explain why Lucas Giolito is due for a bounce-back year with the Red Sox in 2024.

Lucas Giolito can find redemption with Red Sox after recent struggles

Can Lucas Giolito revert to his past form, or even that of early 2023?

There are few franchises in more need of good optics than Boston. Four championships in 19 years does not carry the amount of pride it should right now. 2018 is starting to feel like a distant memory that will be difficult to reclaim in the future. There are promising pieces in place, though.

Rafael Devers and Triston Casas anchor a capable offense that finished first in doubles, sixth in batting average and top 10 in both slugging and OPS. Pitching is a vastly different story, however. Young Brayan Bello is the only player that can likely be locked-in as a future member of the starting rotation. Filling out the rest of the staff is by far the most important objective for the organization to address the rest of this winter.

With Yoshinobu Yamamoto falling out of their grasp, there was always a chance the Red Sox would direct their attention down the free agency board. Enter Giolito. The former first-round pick still carries upside, though.

For a three season stretch (including the 2020 COVID-shortened campaign), his ERA did not jump higher than 3.53 after the final regular season game was played. Sustained success on the mound cannot be taken for granted, especially when it comes in a place riddled with culture questions like the Chicago White Sox. Although the Red Sox are not a PR dream themselves these days, they have the ability to revive Giolito's career.

Red Sox have done well with reclamation projects before

The Tampa Bay rays are considered the standard when it comes to restoring a declining talent to their past glory, but Boston has sneakily done well with their recent free agent bargains. Michael Wacha, who didn't even produce with the Rays, had not posted an ERA better than 4.76 since 2018 before coming to the Sox in 2022. Over the last two years, he has been one of the steadiest starting pitchers in the MLB.

James Paxton's career appeared to have one foot in the grave following a huge drop-off that began in 2020. The Big Maple was in the midst of rehabbing from Tommy John surgery when Boston scooped him up in December of 2021. He missed the entire 2022 season and did not debut with the club until this past May. Though, Paxton quickly got into a groove and was named American League Pitcher of the Month in June.

He plummeted later in the year but still finished with a passable 4.50 ERA. Translation: Afterthoughts can be reborn in Fenway Park. While I understand that an $18 million salary is not a low buy, the same formula can potentially be implemented with Lucas Giolito.

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As is always the case, there are exceptions like Corey Kluber who only hurtle faster into the arms of Father Time. Giolito is not even 30, however. He recorded a 3.79 ERA and 131 strikeouts in 21 starts with the White Sox in 2023 before being dealt to the Angels ahead of the trade deadline. That does not have to bee a fluke, sandwiched between dismal numbers. Fans could see that type of production again next year.

Lucas Giolito should be more motivated than ever

Although he refuted claims that Chicago had culture problems, it is not unreasonable to think that persisting outside distractions could have negatively impacted Giolito and the White Sox last season. Ideally, Boston can foster a more drama-free environment, complete with run support and a respected manager in Alex Cora.

But Giolito should be plenty motivated on his own. He can opt out of his contract at the end of the 2024 campaign, so there is pressure to perform. The Red Sox might be the California native's best shot at earning a hefty long-term deal.

Whether they would be the ones to give it to him is another conversation, but this is a worthwhile experiment for both parties. That being said, Craig Breslow and the front office should not pat themselves on the back. There is more work to be done.