Subscribe
Follow Us
After nearly three decades of hockey in the state of Arizona, it looks like the NHL may have left the Coyotes behind for good. While it’s impossible to rule out an eventual return, it’s looking like Gary Bettman and the league are ready to put the saga of the last few years firmly in the rearview mirror. And Utah HC's new owner Ryan Smith has made it clear that he wants to treat fans in Salt Lake City to a fast, competitive brand of hockey going forward.
At first glance, this roster looks like it fits the bill. After a couple of key upgrades from last season, it's one that, with a couple of good bounces, could be competing for a postseason berth come next April.
In the Coyotes' final season in 2023-24, they were again unable to make the playoffs — making it four straight campaigns without postseason hockey. But there were a couple of positive signs, including the growth of a few terrific young talents in Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther.
Along with the continued development of Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz as bonafide stars, as well as the emergence of Connor Ingram between the pipes, things do seem to be looking up for this franchise. That’s especially true after the blockbuster trade that sent Mikhail Sergachev to Utah, and another that brought John Marino into the fold.
But as the youth revolution takes over in Salt Lake City, it makes sense that a few older players who had impressive campaigns are candidates for regression. Here are three players who are unlikely to replicate very respectable 2023-24 seasons.
Nick Bjugstad should get pushed down the lineup
Nick Bjugstad is fresh off the best season of his professional career. The 32-year-old was excellent for Arizona in 2023-24, scoring a career-high 22 goals and adding 23 assists is 76 games. He spent a lot of time in the top-six, averaging more ice time per game (17:27) than any forward on the team not named Keller or Schmaltz.
Utah HC is hoping that the veteran's standout campaign was not an outlier, but he's certainly a regression candidate. He managed just 29 points the season before, split between the Coyotes and Edmonton Oilers, and had only broken the 40-point mark two other times in his career. That came as a member of the Florida Panthers — the team that drafted him in the first-round in 2010 — way back in 2017-18 when he produced a career-best 49 points.
Expecting Bjugstad to again hit over 40 — something he's only done thrice in his career — is bold, and it won't get any easier with the influx of young talent looking to usurp him. Both Cooley and Barrett Hayton will be looking to secure top-line minutes, and Daily Faceoff currently projects Hayton at 1C between Keller and Schmaltz, and Cooley at 2C along with Guenther and Lawson Crouse. That bumps Bjugstad down to the third-line, where he'll likely play with weaker linemates and not be exposed to either powerplay unit.
The Minnesota native had a fantastic year, but the chances of him replicating it with third-line minutes is unlikely. He should regress with less playing time and considering he's on the wrong side of 30. Still, having him as the 3C will be a luxury for Utah, and he should be able to put together another strong season nonetheless.
Alex Kerfoot is suffering a similar fate
Alex Kerfoot is in a very similar boat to Bjugstad heading into 2024-25. The 30-year-old has been as durable as they come over the last three seasons, playing a full 82-game slate in each of them.
And he was effective again in 2023-24, averaging just one second less of time on ice than Bjugstad and managing 13 goals and 45 points. That was a significant improvement on his 32 points a season before with the Toronto Maple Leafs, but he's just two years removed from a a career-high 51 points with those same Leafs in 2021-22.
Kerfoot had a couple of hot and cold stretches with the Coyotes last season, but there were times were he was playing top-line center minutes and feeding Keller and Schmaltz. That probably won't happen this year.
Daily Faceoff projects Kerfoot moving to the wing, as Utah HC has a bit of a logjam at center with Hayton, Cooley and Bjugstad. But on the left wing, he'll also have to compete with Schmaltz, Crouse and Matias Maccelli, and it's hard to see him bumping any of those players out of the top-nine. As it stands, it looks like he'll be starting the campaign on the fourth line.
It goes without saying that that will decrease his minutes by a fair amount, as well as the quality of his linemates. Although some of the younger players could struggle, allowing him to earn an opportunity higher in the lineup, that probably won't be the case for at least the beginning of the season.
Both Bjugstad and Kerfoot still have an important role to play in 2024-25, it's just hard to see either of them playing 17.5 minutes per game — or producing like it.
Michael Carcone had a ridiculous shooting percentage in 2023-24
The final player on this list is one that doesn't quite fit the bill of Bjugstad or Kerfoot as effective veterans who could be pushed down the lineup. Instead, Michael Carcone is a fourth-line player who broke onto the scene with 21 goals in his first full NHL campaign.
That's not something you see from a fourth liner every day, and it's extremely unlikely that it will happen again. This player had a sky-high 18.9 shooting percentage, which will almost certainly come down. He also managed just eight assists over 74 appearances.
As it stands, Daily Faceoff sees him as the 13th forward, with Kerfoot, Jack McBain and Stanley Cup champion Kevin Stenlund all above him on the depth chart. He was averaging just over 11 minutes per game and scored over 20 goals in 2023-24, which is seriously impressive. It's just tough to see the 28-year-old replicating that.
We won't forget that this player led the American Hockey League in scoring with 85 points in 65 games as a member of the Tucson Roadrunners in 2022-23. And he will certainly get an opportunity for minutes with Utah HC. The front office would love it, but it's hard to see him scoring over 20 goals again unless he gets a significant promotion up the lineup.
