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After coming into the season as one of the favorites in a weak NL Central, the St. Louis Cardinals struggled to even get off the ground in 2023. The team finished in last place in the division at 71-91 — the club's first losing season since 2007 and its worst record since 1990.
No area of this St. Louis Cardinals team was weaker than its starting rotation. Cardinals starter finished the year with a combined ERA of 5.08 — fifth-worst in MLB — and this group had the third-worst WAR (-3.9) among starting rotations. It did not help that the team traded away Jack Flaherty and Jordan Montgomery or that Miles Mikolas was the only pitcher to make more than 21 starts for the club.
Mikolas had a disappointing season, as opponents teed off on him for a league-high 226 hits and 107 earned runs — a far cry from the All-Star pitcher he was in 2022. The retiring Adam Wainwright also had an exceedingly poor season, with a 7.40 ERA across 21 starts and 20 homers given up in just 101 innings pitched.
With three members of the 2023 starting rotation gone and no clear replacements, the Cardinals must address this shortage in the offseason. Fortunately for St. Louis, the free agent market is ripe with starting pitching talent, leaving the club with no shortage of options. Here are a few starting pitchers the team should target, plus other free agents worth pursuing after a disappointing season.
Sign Marcus Stroman (SP)
Marcus Stroman tired in the second half of the season, finishing the year with a 3.95 ERA across 136 innings pitched, which should give the Cardinals a discount price on what was a Cy Young-caliber pitcher the first half of the year. Through his first 16 starts of the season, Stroman had a 2.28 ERA, with half of those appearances being at least six innings with one or fewer runs allowed. The Chicago Cubs hurler also ranked in the 88th percentile in barrel rate while posting his third consecutive season with a Fielding Independent Pitching of less than 3.80.
At worst, Marcus Stroman is a good number-two starter on a Cardinals staff desperate for a productive starting pitcher.
Sign Aaron Nola (SP), Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Aaron Nola has great stuff — as evidenced by five consecutive full seasons with 200-plus strikeouts — but he hasn't always been able to put it together for a successful season. Nola's ERA during that span is a rather normal 3.65 as he has seemingly alternated Cy Young-level years with mediocre seasons. He is coming off a season with a pedestrian 4.46 ERA in which his strikeout-to-walk rate is nearly half of what it was in 2022.
Fortunately for the 30-year-old, durability has not been a concern, as the right-hander has made at least 32 starts in the last five full seasons. Aaron Nola will compete for one of the biggest free agent contracts this offseason, but he is the perfect pitching addition to a Cardinals team with a productive, young lineup.
Sign Keynan Middleton (RP), New York Yankees
While starting pitching was the Cardinals' biggest weakness, the STL relief corps is not without blame as well. Cardinals relievers finished with a -3.0 WAR in 2023 — 23rd among 30 clubs — while converting just 56% of save opportunities (sixth-worst in the league). Ryan Helsey (2.45 ERA, 12.8 strikeouts per nine innings) is a trustworthy closer, or at the very least a lockdown setup man, when healthy, but there are few other dependable options in this St. Louis pen.
Keynan Middleton had an ERA of 3.38 on the year but turned it on for the Yankees down the stretch. He had an ERA of 1.88 in 14.1 innings pitched in New York while posting a WHIP of 0.977. The analytics also show that Middleton was in the 90th percentile or better among MLB pitchers in average exit velocity, whiff rate, and ground ball rate. The 30-year-old will pair well as a setup man alongside the flame-throwing Ryan Helsey.
