The New York Rangers entered the 2025-26 season with championship aspirations, yet through 16 games, their 7-7-2 record has left some fans and analysts questioning whether this team can deliver. However, looking beneath the surface reveals a squad that is performing considerably better than its record suggests—and history demonstrates that early-season struggles rarely dictate final outcomes. Don't panic. This Rangers team is closer to contention than the standings indicate.
The Advanced Stats Tell a Different Story
The most compelling argument against panic lies in the Rangers' underlying analytics. The Rangers are scoring 1.44 fewer goals per 60 minutes than expected—a significant underperformance that represents a stark departure from their historical trend of outscoring their expected goals. This inefficiency in finishing is the primary driver behind their pedestrian record, not a lack of opportunity creation.
The analytics clearly show a team generating elite-level scoring chances but failing to convert them at their typical rate. This is correctable. Unlike defensive breakdowns or systemic issues that take time to remedy, shooting percentages and goal conversion rates naturally regress to the mean as seasons progress. The Rangers possess elite finishing talent—Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, and J.T. Miller have proven track records of excellence in the offensive zone.
Meanwhile, the Rangers' defense has shown improvement. Adam Fox's analytical metrics are exceptional, generating a +0.66 impact on expected goals for each minute played at even strength, while contributing 11 points through 16 games.
Historical Context: Slow Starts Don't Define Seasons
Looking at recent NHL history provides powerful perspective. The Dallas Stars began the 2019-20 season with a nightmarish 1-7-1 record—one of the worst starts in franchise history—yet rebounded with 14 wins in their next 16 games and reached the Stanley Cup Final. The St. Louis Blues faced a similar predicament during their 2018-19 championship season, sitting 15-18-4 on January 3 before completing a historic turnaround that culminated in hoisting the Stanley Cup.
The Colorado Avalanche were 4-5-1 after ten games three seasons ago, yet immediately responded with six consecutive victories and eventually claimed the Stanley Cup. The Anaheim Ducks started 1-7-2 in 2015-16, generated an 11-game winning streak, and finished atop their division. These aren't outliers—they're proof points that early-season turbulence carries minimal bearing on playoff success.
The Goaltending Question
Igor Shesterkin enters the season with a career-worst save percentage from last year (.905), raising questions about declining production. However, context matters tremendously. The Rangers' defensive system generated an unsustainable number of difficult scoring chances against opponents throughout 2024-25. This season, through 12 starts, Shesterkin sports a 2.41 GAA and .909 save percentage—incremental improvements that trend upward.
More importantly, Jonathan Quick has been exceptional in backup duty, posting a .950 save percentage through four games. The Rangers aren't facing a goaltending crisis; they're managing a workload intelligently while Shesterkin finds rhythm. When he regains his elite form—and elite goaltenders always do—this team's defensive efficiency will improve dramatically.
The Rangers' poor start masks a team with legitimate offensive weaponry, improving defense, and proven goaltending stability. They're not far from the win column reflecting their quality of play. History suggests that by December, few will remember October's struggles.
