The Tampa Bay Lightning may not be playing their best hockey as the regular season comes to a close, but there's no reason that head coach Jon Cooper's team won't feel quite a bit of confidence once the playoffs get underway. The Lightning combine explosive offensive skills with Nikita Kucherov at the top of the ladder, excellent depth and timely scoring from the supporting cast, solid defense and outstanding goaltending with Andrei Vasilevskiy.
The Lightning demonstrated how well they could play when they reeled off a 19-1-1 streak that allowed them to take control of the Atlantic Division. The resurgent Buffalo Sabres pulled off their own hot streak and the two teams have been fighting for the division crown.
As the two teams go down the stretch, the Sabres (46-21-8, 100 points) have moved back into first place following their Tuesday night 4-3 home victory over the New York Islanders while the Lightning (46-22-6, 98 points) dropped a home game to the streaking Montreal Canadiens.
That 4-1 loss to the Habs gives the Lightning something else to be concerned about. They lead Montreal (43-21-10, 96 points) by just two points and the Boston Bruins (43-24-8, 94 points) by four points.
The Lightning could finish anywhere from first in the division to the No. 1 Wild Card spot when the regular season comes to a conclusion. That's a huge variation and one that Cooper wants to see his team control. The Lightning have a shot at gaining the home-ice advantage throughout the Eastern Conference Finals, but they could find themselves shunted to a Wild Card position that would force them to play four potential series without having home ice in any Game 7 situation.
The talent and experience levels are so high that such a disadvantage would not necessarily serve as a killing blow in the postseason. Obviously, the Lightning want to play at home in every Game 7, but it will take a major effort for any of their Eastern Conference foes to defeat them.
First-round series vs. Canadiens could have dangerous implications
A decent argument that three of the potential first-round series could be dangerous. If they have to play the Sabres in the first round, Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin and Alex Tuch make the Sabres a very dangerous opponent.
Montreal has as much or more speed than any Eastern Conference opponent, and head coach Martin St. Louis has his team playing sensational hockey at this point in the year with six consecutive victories. The Boston Bruins have been overachievers all season and they have one of the league's most creative players in David Pastrnak and excellent goaltending with Jeremy Swayman. They could also push the Lightning hard.
However, if the Lightning is playing its best hockey, the Canadiens probably have the best chance of beating them and turning the playoffs into a nightmare. That would be especially true if the Habs leapfrog Tampa Bay and gain home ice in the series.
Nick Suzuki is the Montreal captain and he is the team's best player. Suzuki has scored 27 goals and 65 assists for 92 points, and he is the player that the Habs look to on either end of the ice. He knows how to limit opponents when a defensive play is needed, while he is quite creative when the Canadiens need to score a goal.
Cole Caufield is their most explosive goal scorer, as he combines brilliant skating speed and balance with a pinpoint shot. If Caufield has a few inches on the short side, he can embarrass any goaltender. In addition to those two, Lane Hutson, Juraj Slafkovsky and Ivan Demidov are all dangerous players.
Lightning have more than enough weapons to return fire
Those players can all threaten the Lightning, but Kucherov, Jake Guentzel, Brandon Hagel and Brayden Point give the Lightning the firepower needed to win any series.
Darren Raddysh has emerged as a huge weapon on the back end because he has one of the hardest shots from the blue line in the game. The Lightning would be even stronger if defenseman Victor Hedman (personal) returns to the lineup.
Vasilevskiy might prove to be the difference in a close series. He is a proven postseason performer who has two Stanley Cups to his credit. Montreal goaltender Jakub Dobes has played extremely well during the team's six-game winning streak, but he is not in the same class as the Tampa Bay netminder.
Second round and Eastern Conference Finals could be challenging
If the Lightning emerge from a 2-3 series with the Habs as the victors. They will play the winner of Buffalo's series against the No. 7 or 8 seed. If the Sabres win the division but have fewer points than the Metropolitan Division champion Carolina Hurricanes (all but assured), they would play the seventh-seed. That appears to be the Bruins.
The winner of that series would push the Lightning hard, but Tampa could have an experience advantage over the playoff-deprived Sabres and a speed and poise advantage over the rough-and-tumble Bruins.
Both the Sabres and Bruins could challenge the Lightning and push them to seven games, but Tampa Bay should emerge against either opponent.
Tampa Bay would then meet Carolina in the Eastern Conference Finals. As strong as the Hurricanes are, they have never gotten past this round. Unless the Hurricanes show the ability to come through in the clutch that has been missing for years, the Lightning should emerge and get a chance to compete in the Stanley Cup Finals.
That series would obviously be a major challenge since the Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild are all dangerous teams capable of playing impressive hockey all the way the trough the playoffs and into the Stanley Cup Finals.
The Avs are one of the most explosive offensive teams in the NHL, and Nathan MacKinnon could look at this series as his personal competition with Kucherov in addition as his chance to come away with a second Stanley Cup title. Cale Makar is the best defenseman in the league, and the Lightning would be at a major disadvantage in the series if Hedman is not playing his best game.
They must get a huge competition from their top blue liner in order to have a chance to beat the Avs. This would be the most challenging matchup of all.
