The Tampa Bay Lightning have already shifted to making sure they can remain competitive in the future following their loss to the Colorado Avalanche in the Stanley Cup Finals. Last week, the Lightning dealt defenseman Ryan McDonagh to the Nashville Predators. In exchange, they landed defenseman Philippe Myers and forward Grant Mismash.
So, let's grade the Ryan McDonagh Lightning-Predators trade.
Grading the Tampa Bay Lightning trade of Ryan McDonagh to the Nashville Predators
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
McDonagh was part of the Lightning's back-to-back Stanley Cup titles. He played a key role on the team's blue line. This past season, the defenseman managed four goals and 26 points in 71 games and averaged over 22 minutes per game.
However, the Lightning have been right up against the cap for a while now. As a result, the focus has to shift to how they'll be able to retain pieces who can have a long-term impact.
Ondrej Palat is the notable free agent this offseason but next year is when the team really has to worry. In 2023, Erik Cernak, Anthony Cirelli and Mikhail Sergachev will all be restricted free agents. Given the age of these players and how important their roles are, Tampa Bay can't afford to lose any of them. Each of the three could remain key players for the team for the better part of the next decade.
Now was the correct time to move McDonagh. The defenseman is 33 years old and has four years still remaining on his contract at a $6.75 million cap hit. While he's still a sturdy top-four defenseman, this trade was more about looking toward the future.
Ryan McDonagh isn't quite worth his $6.75 million cap hit right now and his contract is likely to become an issue as he ages. Given the term and cap hit remaining, the Lightning couldn't take the risk that they'd get stuck with the contract.
While losing McDonagh is a hit to their defensive depth, it was a necessary choice. Wait another year to deal him and he could face a more significant decline and his trade value could plummet. Ryan McDonagh also had a full no-trade clause. So, the Lightning were wise to make the move while they could.
Here's Ryan McDonagh on why he waived his no trade clause to come to Nashville and play for the #Preds pic.twitter.com/hzwAdBJ71D
— Alex Daugherty (@AlexDaugherty1) July 3, 2022
In terms of the return, obviously the team got basically nothing back. Myers is still fairly young but isn't a full-time NHL defenseman. He also isn't worth his $2.55 million cap hit. Meanwhile, Mishmash doesn't project as much of a legitimate NHL player. He's 23 years old and had just 12 points in 57 AHL games this season.
Again though, the success of this trade doesn't rest on the return for the Lightning. The fact they were able to move McDonagh at his age with so much term remaining (and without retaining salary) is a win itself.
With the move, the Lightning bought themselves cap flexibility to avoid losing younger pieces and continue contending.
Grade: B
Nashville Predators
From Nashville's perspective, it's an interesting move. On the one hand, they got a really good defenseman. They barely gave up anything in the process. Ryan McDonagh will be a huge addition to their defense group, as a former captain and Stanley Cup champion. Even though his production isn't where it once was, he can still take on tough matchups and is reliable defensively. Top-four defensemen don't come cheap and getting one for nothing can't be overlooked.
At the same time, this is a big contract the Predators are taking on, given McDonagh's age. He's already not worth the high salary and we can project the deal could become an issue later on. If the Predators signed him to this contract as a free agent, it would be viewed as an overpayment.
Looking at Nashville's defense group as a whole, they're now paying over $22 million to three defenseman who are all at least 32 years old. Each of McDonagh, Roman Josi and Mattias Ekholm have quite a bit of term remaining on their deals as well. While it's not an issue at the moment, their situation on defense may not look as good in a few years.
The other factor to consider is where the Predators are in terms of competitiveness. They're not likely to be a contender next season. That means it doesn't necessarily make sense to take a big contract now and suffer the consequences down the road.
It's certainly a gamble for Nashville to take on McDonagh's contract, even if they were able to make the move without giving up any assets of note. Without salary retention though, this is a move that could look rough in a couple of years down the line.
Grade: B-
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