Michigan basketball is the number one seed in the Midwest Region. Michigan will be looking to win its first National Championship since 1989. As they prepare to embark on their run through the bracket, they are in a perfect spot to make the run.
It was a solid season for the Wolverines. They started 14-0 before their first loss of the year, a a three point defeat to Wisconsin. They would then win another 11 straight before falling to Duke by five. Michigan would then not fall again in the regular season. Still, the Big Ten tournament did not go quite as planned. They struggled in the first game against Ohio State, holding on to win by just four points.
In the semifinal, they faced Wisconsin, and once again it was a struggle. Yaxel Lendeborg hit a three-point shot as time expired to lift the Wolverines to a 68-65 victory over the Badgers. They then faced Purdue in the Big Ten Championship game. It was a tight first half, as the two teams were tied at 38 at the end of the half.
Still, Purdue would pull away early in the second half. They built a ten-point lead mid-way through the second half, and never would give it up. Purdue went on to win the game 80-72. Now, the Wolverines turn their focus on the NCAA Tournament. They open tournament play on Thursday against the winner of UMBC and Howard.
The metrics support a run
Certain benchmarks often help predict a national champion. One of those is offensive and defensive efficiency. KenPom began tracking all the way back to the 1997 NCAA Tournament. Since then, every single champion has reached two criteria. The first is a top 40 offensive efficiency. Michigan currently is eighth in offensive efficiency this season, according to KenPom.
The offense has been stellar. They are eighth in the nation in points per game while sitting fifth in assists per game. Further, they shoot 61 percent from two, which is fourth in the nation. While the team is 87th in field goal attempts, they are ninth in field goals made per game this year. They have also been known to take control of games early. Michigan is second in the nation in points per first half this year.
The second metric is being top 25 in defensive efficiency, in KenPom's rankings. Michigan ranks first in that regard. The Michigan defense has been phenomenal this year. While they are 50th in opponent points per game, they are first in opponent shooting efficiency and opponent shooting percentage. Furthermore, they are fourth against the two and 11th against the three. They also dominate inside, sitting fourth in the nation in blocks per game.
Currently, 11 teams fit the mold of Top 40 offensive efficiency and top 25 on defense. Also, since 2002, all but one champion has been top 25 in both marks. That shrinks the field even more, to just seven teams. Duke, Arizona, Florida, Houston, Iowa State, Michigan State, and Michigan are the only seven that fit the metrics mold.
Michigan has size and depth
Michigan has overwhelmed opponents with size this year, creating a physically imposing roster. This starts with Yaxel Lendeborg, the Big Ten Player of the Year. He was great all year long, scoring 14.4 points, and adding seven rebounds and 3.3 assists per game. He also drained the game-winner against Wisconsin in the semifinals to get Michigan to the Big Ten Championship game. Lendeborg sustained an injury against Purdue, but says he will be ready for the tournament.
Beyond the 6-9 Lendeborg, Michigan has Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara in the front court. Johnson is also six feet nine inches tall, while Mara is over seven feet tall, making this one of the largest front courts in the nation. They also have three other bigs, all over six feet four inches tall, with Nimari Burnett, Roddy Gayle Jr., and Trey McKenney.
This led to domination on the inside. Michigan was both top five in shots made inside the arc on offense and shooting percentage inside the arc on defense. They were also fourth in blocks per game, while staying out of foul trouble. They are 41st in the nation in personal fouls per game.
Meanwhile, their size helps them dominate on the glass. They are fourth in the nation in defensive rebounds per game, while allowing the second fewest defensive rebounds per game in the country. The Wolverines are also top 40 in both offensive rebounding and defensive rebounding rate. They control possesion through a dominating front court, which will help the Wolverines win it all.
The road to the Final Four is navigatable
The road to the Final Four is solid for Michigan. Still, it starts on the first weekend. When they have advanced to the second weekend, they have gone on to the Final Four 42 percent of the time. The Wolverines do not know their first opponent yet, but are preparing for both, according to Dusty May, per Tony Garcia of the Detroit Free Press.
“We'll take a look a what both teams do and see if there's anything out of the ordinary we'll have to spend preparation time on,” May said soon after learning his team’s draw. “We just played three games in three days. … There's going to be a lot of mental preparation, but it will give us a chance to clean up some of our stuff.”
After that, they have Georgia or Saint Louis. Georgia could pose a threat to Michigan. They play a similar style of basketball to Wisconsin, which gave Michigan trouble. Still, they are faster-paced, which could fall into Michign favor. The major test could come in the Sweet 16 against Alabama, should that be the match-up. Michigan dominates inside, but Alabama is a heavy three-point shooting team. If Alabama gets shots to fall, Michigan's size will be more limited. Still, if they can get some pressure on the outside, Michigan can use its size to dominate the glass and get an easy win.
Iowa State and Virginia could also pose some major threats to Michigan. Iowa State is one of the most experienced teams in the nation and is great on defense. They also force plenty of turnovers, which Michigan will give up. Still, neither UVA nor Iowa State has the offensive threat to contend with the Wolverines.
Regardless, if Michigan gets to the Final Four, they should be sitting pretty. They have been to the Final Four eight different times. Seven of those times, they went to the National Championship game. The only time they did not was their first trip to the Final Four in 1964. Michigan can navigate this bracket if it gets back to its basics. If they make the Final Four, it could come down to just one game and getting one final win.
While Michigan fell to Purdue in the Big Ten Championship game, Dusty May and company will use that as fuel for the fire, as they cut down the nets in April.
