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The Montreal Canadiens might be the most challenging team to predict as they enter the 2025 NHL Trade Deadline. For a two-month stretch from November to January, the Canadiens were one of the best teams in the NHL. However, they started to fall off when the calendar started to near the Four Nations Faceoff break. They entered that break with a whimper, and it looked like they had given up all the ground they had made over that two-month span.
The post-break began with the Canadiens as the second-worst team in the Atlantic Division. They won their first game back against the Ottawa Senators and then rallied off four more wins to go 5- 0 in their first five games. The run put them one point behind the Detroit Red Wings and New York Rangers for the last wild-card spot, but there are three other teams in striking distance of the last spot. The odds are stacked against the Canadiens to return to the playoffs for the first time since their 2021 Stanley Cup Finals run.
The Canadiens have plenty of options to trade at the deadline, but one went off the board on Tuesday afternoon. Jake Evans signed a four-year extension with the team, solidifying his spot as their fourth-line center of the future. He would've fetched a good return from a contending team, but in the end, he took a pay cut to stay in Montreal. It isn't the end of the world for the Canadiens, as they have plenty of draft picks and prospects to make up for not getting a return on Evans.
Canadiens have to pick a lane at the trade deadline
Montreal's recent run has put the front office in a predicament. On the one hand, they can sell their UFAs, finish as low as possible in the standings, and get one more top draft pick. The team has shown they can compete in the playoff race this year, and the young core will only get better with another year of development. Montreal has an outside chance of making the playoffs, but making a playoff run is unlikely, and selling might be in their best interest.
On the other hand, Kent Hughes can look at his current situation and see that he has more than enough young assets to make a playoff run. The rebuild is almost over, and one more top pick and prospect could put them over the top, but you also can't devalue some of the young core getting a playoff run under their belts.
Does that mean the Canadiens could become buyers at the deadline? It'd be a bold move, but there's an outside chance that Montreal would be in a playoff spot when the deadline rolls around on Friday. They have the Calgary Flames' first-round draft pick this season, which means they could trade one of their first-rounds to land a second-line center with Kirby Dach out for the year.
The Canadiens also have Oliver Kapanen, who debuted this season under plenty of fanfare but returned to Europe in November. With the play of Emil Heineman and Owen Beck and the signing of Evans, Kapanen is suddenly an expendable asset. Could the Canadiens dangle Kapanen and a first to land a big piece or two and go for a playoff run?
Montreal cannot be stagnant
Hughes will likely make a last-minute decision about whether to buy or sell. However, they cannot afford to remain stagnant and try to make the playoffs with their roster as currently constructed. Beck is the second-line center with Dach out, and he played just under eight minutes for the Canadiens on Monday night against the Buffalo Sabres. A second-line center playing those minutes isn't a viable strategy for a team hoping to make the playoffs.
Martin St. Louis can get away with that strategy if the Canadiens plan to sell and tank for the rest of the year. It'd give Beck a chance to play more minutes and see what they have in him without trading away Kapanen. Trading away pieces like Mike Matheson, David Savard, and Joel Armia would give the Canadiens one last fill of rebuilding assets before they start contending when Ivan Demidov comes to North America, and the rest are 100% ready.
The nightmare scenario for the Canadiens will be if they stand pat with their pending UFAs but don't add players who can help them this season. The Canadiens could go into another losing skid, miss the playoffs, get a mid-first-round pick, and not have accrued any other assets. Hughes has done well enough with the rebuild that it wouldn't completely ruin their plans, but it wouldn't offer much of a return on their investment.
