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What a strange odyssey 2019 has been for the Philadelphia Phillies.
After having a breakout season over the first six months of the 2018 season, the Phillies stumbled to a woeful 8-20 record in September. But armed with a young and talented pitching staff headlined by ace Aaron Nola as well as a host of productive bats in the lineup, the Phillies were on the rise in the National League East.
In the winter, general manager Matt Klentak went for broke. Klentak signed outfielder Andrew McCutchen and marquee reliever David Robertson, traded for shortstop Jean Segura and landed one of the premier trade chips in the game in catcher J.T. Realmuto.
Then, Klentak pushed all of his chips to the center of the table. Shortly after the San Diego Padres signed Manny Machado to a big contract, the Phillies signed prized free agent Bryce Harper to a massive 13-year, $330 million deal.
Even as division foes such as the Washington Nationals and New York Mets reloaded in the offseason, most analysts seem to think that Philadelphia's haul was enough to make them the early favorites to win the NL East.
Unfortunately for Klentak and the Phillies, the reality has not matched preseason expectations. Although Rhys Hoskins has developed into a star, the promising arms in Philadelphia's rotation have failed to live up to the hype, and Klentak's offseason additions have merely been serviceable.
Meanwhile, Robertson hit the 60-day Injured List after appearing in just seven games, and McCutchen was lost for the season when he tore his ACL at the beginning of June. The injuries have only been the tip of the iceberg, as outfielder Odubel Herrera was suspended for the remainder of the season after violating the MLB's joint domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy.
The Phillies were 49-46 entering play on July 17, and they continue to slide further behind the Atlanta Braves and Nationals in the East. With the trade deadline quickly approaching, Philadelphia need to make impact moves if they hope to salvage their season and reach the playoffs.
Pitching, pitching everywhere
To say that Philadelphia's pitching staff has been disappointing would be a drastic understatement. Entering play on July 17, Philly's pitching staff ranked 12th in the National League in ERA.
Nick Pivetta and Vincent Velasquez have struggled to take the next steps in their progression (Velasquez was even moved to the bullpen), while Jerad Eickhoff has battled injuries. Not to mention, Jake Arrieta will attempt to pitch through a bone spur despite facing the prospect of surgery.
The Phillies rank just 25th in starting pitching fWAR, and they need to add a more reliable arm in the rotation, particularly with Arrieta ailing. Luckily for Philadelphia, there are a number of starting pitchers that are likely to be on the trade block in the next couple weeks.
One such starter could be Arizona Diamondbacks lefty Robbie Ray, who is making just $6.5 million and has another year of arbitration left. Ray has had a fairly successful run in Arizona, and has posted a 3.81 ERA and 11.8 K/9 in his first 20 starts this season.
Although he leads the National League in walks, Ray has actually cut his BB/9 rate from last season, and he is the kind of impact arm that a team like the Phillies should covet. Indeed, MLB.com Insider Jon Morosi reported that the Phillies are showing interest in Ray.
Morosi also reported that the Phillies are showing an interest in Texas Rangers lefty Mike Minor, who had a 2.83 ERA and 8.9 K/9 in his first 19 starts this season:
Sources: Mike Minor is increasingly likely to be traded in the next two weeks, as I reported a short time ago on @MLBNetwork. The #Brewers and #Phillies are among the interested teams, although there’s no indication that a deal is close. @MLB
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 17, 2019
Minor's peripherals are slightly less encouraging (4.42 xFIP), but he would nonetheless be an instant upgrade in Philadelphia's rotation.
The Phillies would like to make a play for marquee arms like Trevor Bauer or Madison Bumgarner, but they do not possess as much leverage as other teams likely to be in on those two, especially given the relatively weak status of their farm system.
But merely adding a starter is just the beginning for this Phillies team.
Injuries necessitate bullpen moves
Philadelphia's starting rotation has certainly been subpar, but their bullpen situation is really in dire straits. Even though Robertson is expected to return in the near future, other injuries have depleted the depth of the relief unit.
Pat Neshek is not expected to return until later in September due to a hamstring strain. Tommy Hunter's timeline is unclear after he suffered a right forearm strain and Seranthony Dominguez is in the same position after the discovery of damage sustained to the UCL in his throwing arm. Needless to say, things are getting sticky.
Hector Neris and Jose Alvarez have good stuff, but their high usage is not exactly resulting in increased effectiveness. The Phillies could use an arm or two to take some of the pressure off of these guys in the back of the bullpen.
Relievers are almost always on the move at the deadline, and there are a number of targets that could be on the Phillies' radar. They are equally unlikely to make a play for Will Smith, Brad Hand or Kirby Yates as they are for Bauer or Bumgarner, but quality arms are out there.
If the Phillies are in on Ray, they should also be in on Diamondbacks reliever Andrew Chafin, who had a 3.21 ERA in 33 2/3 innings of work while completely dominating left-handed hitters.
Another name of interest should be Orioles reliever Mychal Givens. Despite carrying a 4.50 ERA, Givens has a 12.75 K/9 and a 3.60 xFIP in 36 innings of work, and he is the kind of guy that seems due for some positive regression.
Two other relievers to watch will be Alex Colome of the Chicago White Sox and Jake Diekman of the Kansas City Royals.
Colome has been very effective as the closer on the South Side of Chicago, and he still has another year of arbitration before he is eligible for free agency (though he is already making over $7 million this season). Diekman has not had as much success in Kansas City, but he possesses an elite strikeout rate and could benefit from being moved to a team in the thick of a playoff race.
Whether Klentak looks to make a big splash or buys low on a pair of arms, the Phillies cannot afford to merely stand pat and wait for their relievers to get healthy.
Better leadoff option
Philadelphia's offense has merely been middling, ranking 7th in the National League in runs scored. One of the reasons for their lack of success stems from not having a quality bat at the top of the order.
Before his injury, McCutchen had been terrific in the leadoff spot, slashing .256/.378/.457 while acting as a table-setter for guys like Harper and Hoskins. Since he went down in June, the Phillies have yet to find an answer.
Segura, Scott Kingery and Cesar Hernandez have all posted extremely poor numbers from the leadoff spot despite putting together decent seasons, and manager Gabe Kapler is running out of options. Unfortunately for Klentak and the front office, there are not too many bats out there that would adequately fill this need.
Dee Gordon is on the market and has plenty of speed, but his sub-.300 OBP and $13 million contract are unlikely to appeal to the Phillies. Whit Merrifield or Alex Gordon of the Royals would be excellent options, but they are not likely to be available.
One guy that the Phillies could look to acquire would be yet another Diamondback: outfielder David Peralta. While Peralta has traditionally hit in the middle of the order, he does have experience leading off, posting a respectable .338 OBP and .775 OPS in 532 career plate appearances at the top of the order.
The issue is that the Diamondbacks may be reluctant to sell Peralta since he also has another year of team control left. Even if they do sell him, injuries have been a concern throughout his short career.
Another player that could be moved is Kole Calhoun of the Los Angeles Angels. Calhoun has had a very up-and-down career, and teams are wary of his recent power surge this season. Still, he has a .330 OBP and .796 OPS in twice as many plate appearances at the leadoff spot relative to Peralta, and he likely would cost far less than the Arizona outfielder.
Philadelphia's “big offseason” has not yielded the desired results, and now they find themselves chasing games as they prepare for the dog days of summer.
If the Phillies fail to get aggressive in making some trades at the deadline, they might find themselves out of the playoff picture come October.
