The Minnesota Wild are looking to make it to the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the sixth time in seven seasons. The Wild have been one of the best teams in the NHL this year. While the team has been great this year, they are in the most difficult division in the NHL this season, which could lead to a nightmare scenario for the team.
The Wild have had a fair amount of success for over a decade. Since 2012-13, the team has missed the playoffs just twice, failing to qualify in 2018-19 and in 2023-24. Still, since that time, they have won just two first-round series. The first was in 2013-14, when they defeated the Colorado Avalanche in seven games, before losing in six games to the Chicago Blackhawks in the second round. That was in 2014-15 when the Wild defeated the St. Louis Blues in six games in the first round, but were swept by the Blackhawks in the second round.
The most success the team has had in franchise history came back in 2002-03, when they won two series, but were swept in the conference finals by the Mighty Ducks of Anaheim.
This year, the Wild have been great. They are 40-19-12 on the season, which is good for 92 total points. It is also the fifth-best record in the NHL, while the third-best record in the Western Conference. Still, it is the third-best record in their own division. The Wild sit five points behind the Dallas Stars, who have played one fewer game, while they are ten points behind the Avalanche, who have played two fewer games.
The Wild need to avoid 3rd place in the Central Division
The Wild have been playing in the best division in the NHL. The Avalanche is right now in the driver's seat to win the Presidents' Trophy, while the Stars are the main team contending against them. Meanwhile, the Wild would be in second place, if not first, in every other division in the NHL, but still sit third in this division.
The NHL playoffs feature mostly divisional matchups in the first two rounds. The top team in the Central Division will get the lowest seeded wild card team in the first round, having home ice advantage, and playing games 1, 2, 5, and 7 at home. Currently, the Nashville Predators sit in that spot, with just 75 points. Still, the Wild are ten points back with just 11 games to play. While mathematically possible to catch the top spot, it is highly unlikely.
The second and third-place teams in the division will also face each other in the first round, with the second-place team having home ice advantage. The Wild need to jump into second place and get home ice in the first round. While the Wild have been solid on the road this year, having home ice could be huge against their potential opponents.
The most likely opponent in the first round is the Stars, whom they are 2-1 against this year. Both wins came at home, while the loss was a 5-2 defeat on the road.
Facing Dallas and Colorado back-to-back is a nightmare
The nightmare scenario for the Wild looks like it is all but guaranteed to come to fruition, which is having to face the Stars and Avalanche back-to-back. The Wild have been solid this year. The powerplay is a primary point of scoring for the team, as they convert on 24.6 percent of their chances, good for sixth in the NHL. Meanwhile, the defense has also been solid. The Wild allow just 2.78 goals per game, which is tied for fourth in the league. Still, there are some weaknesses. Minnesota is 16th in the league on the penalty kill. They are also 12th in the league in goals per game this year, scoring 3.23 goals per game.
The Avalanche is a bad matchup for the Wild. The team has struggled to keep up with high-scoring teams. The Avs are first in the NHL in goals per game, scoring 3.68 goals per game this year. The last five times the Wild have given up three or more goals, the team has just one win, and an overtime victory over the Chicago Blackhawks. They have Colorado four times this year. When the Wild have given up three or more goals, they have lost both times. When the Wild were able to slow down the Avalanche, they won. Further, the Wild get many of their points on the powerplay, and the Avalanche are second in the NHL in fewest penalty minutes this year.
The Stars also present a challenge, and making it more difficult, it is a different type of challenge. The Wild have struggled on the penalty kill this year, while Dallas is second in the league on the powerplay. Further, Minnesota has one of the highest distances for on-target shots in the NHL, often settling for outside shots. Meanwhile, Jake Oettinger has been one of the best in the NHL from shots outside of high-danger scoring areas. This means the offense that has scored well will struggle against Oettinger.
If the Wild can get to the Western Conference final, facing a team like the Edmonton Oilers could be a disaster. Edmonton's biggest weakness has been goaltending. Still, the Wild have struggled all year to take advantage of poor goaltending this year. Further, Edmonton is sixth in the NHL in goals, and has the best powerplay unit in the NHL.
While Minnesota is a great team, they are going to have a difficult draw. If they have to play without home ice advantage against both the Avalanche and Stars, it is unlikely they will advance to the Western Conference finals. If they do make it, facing a team like Edmonton would likely end their run.
