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The Tampa Bay Lightning have done the unthinkable, reaching their third straight Stanley Cup Finals. They did so in impressive fashion, winning four straight games against the New York Rangers. The Rangers won the first two games on home ice and were completely dominated the rest of the way. The Lightning took them out of their game and did not let the Rangers have any room offensively. They move on to face the Western Conference champion Colorado Avalanche.
The Stanley Cup Finals between the Lightning and Avalanche should be absolutely magic to watch. Both teams feature some of the most creative, best goal scorers in the entire league. Colorado has been playing at an insane level offensively throughout these playoffs. The Avalanche scored 22 goals in a four-game sweep of the Edmonton Oilers in the Western Conference Final. They scored seven goals twice against the Nashville Predators in the first round. Clearly, slowing down the Avalanche attack will be one of the primary objectives for Tampa Bay.
Nevertheless, they still have the edge in this series. These are the three biggest reasons why the Lightning will upset the Avalanche to win the 2022 Stanley Cup.
3 Biggest Reasons the Lightning will beat the Avalanche to win the 2022 Stanley Cup
1. Tampa Bay has better goaltending
Both the Lightning and the Avalanche have a great goalie. The Avs have Darcy Kuemper, who had a fantastic season. The Lightning counter with Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has already built his reputation as one of the best playoff goalies of all-time. However, there is no certainty that Kuemper will be available, or at full strength.
Kuemper was injured during Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals with an upper body injury. He was not listed as available for the next couple of games against the Oilers, but was listed as the backup in Game 4. That's a clear sign that he could have played. As recent as Friday, Kuemper said that he expects to be ready to play in Game 1 vs. the Lightning.
The Avalanche injury update on Thursday was perhaps as good of news as fans could have hoped. https://t.co/ZxTuSzAB2T
— Denver Post – Avs (@avsnews) June 9, 2022
But even if Kuemper plays, there is no guarantee he is 100 percent healthy.
For argument sake, let's say he is completely healthy though. The Avalanche are still facing a disadvantage in net because of who the Lightning have.
Vasilevskiy was decent over the course of his first couple years in the playoffs. But since the recent reign of dominance began a few years ago, he is 46-19 with seven shutouts. He has lost back-to-back games a grand total of once during that span. That happened last series against the Rangers.
He then bounced back and allowed a total of five goals over the next four games. Whether or not the Avs have Kuemper in net, the Lightning have the better goalie.
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2. Stanley Cup Finals experience
One of the biggest mismatches in this series will be experience.
The Avs have a ton of skill and depth, but not nearly as much experience in the Stanley Cup Finals. Whereas, the Lightning have as much as any team in recent history.
Tampa Bay is attempting to become the first team since the New York Islanders to win three straight championships. The Islanders won it four straight years from 1980 to 1983. The Lightning are already the first team since the early 80's to reach three straight Finals.
The Lightning have won 11 straight playoff series, the 3rd-longest streak in NHL history:
– 19 straight by Islanders from 1980-84
– 13 straight by Canadiens from 1976-80 pic.twitter.com/YjXtTYPgyt
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) June 12, 2022
Most of the team is in tact from the past two seasons. They have their goalie in Vasilevskiy, to go along with Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Ondrej Palat, among a laundry list of others from the past two titles. Stamkos is also getting hot at the right time, scoring two goals in Tampa's Game 6 win vs. the Rangers.
3. Tampa Bay is healthier
Even though the Avs are the favorites to win this series, according to FanDuel, the Lightning have the experience and goaltending advantage. Well, they are also the healthier of the two clubs.
The Avalanche are likely without both Nazem Kadri and Andrew Cogliano for at least part of the series. Both players recently had surgery after sustaining injuries during the playoffs. It's not a lock that they will miss the entire series. However, it is more likely they miss at least the first few games.
That weakens the front-line depth of Colorado. Avalanche left winger J.T. Compher is probably going to have move up in lines and fill some pretty big shoes. He will also be playing many more minutes than he typically does.
On the other side, the Lightning are relatively healthy going into the playoffs. The only real worry is regarding Brayden Point.
“I don’t know about probability of Game 1, but it is extremely probable he will play in the series."
Lightning coach Jon Cooper thinks star centre Brayden Point will return at some point in the Stanley Cup Final against the Avalanche.https://t.co/QCnXw5LVys
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) June 12, 2022
Point is expected to return during the series. But unlike Kadri and Cogliano, the Lightning have had plenty of time to play without Point this postseason.
Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals is Wednesday night in Colorado. The Lightning have a normal few days off to prepare. Meanwhile, the Avs could very well be rusty. Their last game will have been nine days after winning the Western Conference. Just ask the Golden State Warriors, who lost at home in Game 1 of the NBA Finals after a week-long layoff.
