For the Toronto Maple Leafs, the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs represent one last chance. Toronto has been a playoff threat for over half a decade now, but keeps finding ways to lose in the first round. Eventually, the Maple Leafs have to find a way to break through, and this may be their last chance to do so. If they fail again, expect to see major changes this offseason.

Fortunately for the Maple Leafs, this may also be their best chance to finally get out of the first round. Their first-round opponent, the Tampa Bay Lightning, look much weaker than they have in the past, while the Leafs look just as good if not better. Yes, the Lightning have had much more playoff success and defeated the Leafs last year. On paper, though, this series should be the Leafs' to lose.

After that, could Toronto go on a deep run and finally win its first Stanley Cup since 1967? It won't be easy, but the Leafs absolutely have the pieces to make such a run. It's just a matter of whether or not they can finally put all those pieces together.

Without further ado, here are three reasons why Toronto will win the Stanley Cup in 2023.

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3. High-end talent

To anyone who has watched hockey over the last five years, Toronto's star players need no introduction. These players aren't just stars in their own market but across the entire league.

The star of the show is Auston Matthews, the 2022 Hart Trophy winner and arguably the best goal-scorer since Alexander Ovechkin. Usually on Matthews' wing is Mitchell Marner, who just had a career season with 99 points. Then there's fellow winger William Nylander, who also had a career year with 40 goals and 87 points. Finally, there's John Tavares, who is still a point-per-game player as he gets into his early 30s.

Yes, their performance in the playoffs has been questionable at times. However, don't forget that Matthews, Marner, and Nylander were all at or over a point per game in last year's series, while Tavares was only one short. If they can repeat that performance again, it should bode very well for the Leafs' chances.

2. Trade deadline overhaul

For contending teams, the trade deadline is a time to add that last missing piece or two in the chase for the Stanley Cup. For the Maple Leafs, though, they used this time to completely overhaul their roster. General manager Kyle Dubas, whose contract is up after this season, knows how much is riding on these playoffs and he decided to go big.

Toronto definitely paid a high price to do this, shipping off Rasmus Sandin and Pierre Engvall. However, when the Leafs added Jake McCabe, Sam Lafferty, Noel Accari and 2019 Conn Smythe winner Ryan O'Reilly, it's clear that the Leafs are going all in this year. They even got a first-round pick in exchange for Sandin, so they got a valuable piece for the future too.

After these moves, Toronto is a much deeper and well-rounded team than it was before. Now the pressure isn't all on the stars to perform, as they have plenty of complementary scorers as well. O'Reilly's Stanley Cup pedigree will also be crucial for a team still trying to figure out how to win in the playoffs. With a solid 12-5-3 record since the trade deadline, the Leafs are hoping that success will carry into the playoffs.

1. If the Leafs can win one series, they can finally play loose

This might sound strange at first, but just follow along and it will all make sense. As mentioned previously, the Leafs have had the talent to make a deep playoff run for a long time now. The reason why they haven't isn't due to a lack of talent, but rather a mental hurdle.

Whenever the Leafs have a chance to finish off their opponent, they seem to get into their own heads and play afraid. For example, look at their 2021 series against the Montreal Canadiens. They had much more talent than the Canadiens and jumped out to a 3-1 series lead. After that, they lost Games 5 and 6 in overtime, despite dominating the extra period in the latter, and went out with a whimper in Game 7.

For another example, take a look at last year's series against Tampa Bay. The Leafs had the Lightning on the ropes, leading Game 6 after two periods with a chance to close out the series. Instead, Tampa Bay tied the game, forced overtime (which Toronto dominated again) and eventually won Game 7.

It seems clear that the Leafs' past playoff failures weigh on them when they have a chance to advance. If they can finally win that first series (and hopefully avoid a Game 7 for their sake), imagine how relieving that would feel. Maybe getting the monkey off their back is all it takes for Toronto to finally make that long-awaited playoff run.