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The Colorado Avalanche's only hope is that their moves earlier in the season don't return to haunt them in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. General manager Chris MacFarland was in a tough spot in the middle of this season. Longtime star Mikko Rantanen's contract expires at the end of this season, and MacFarland feared they'd lose him for nothing. In an unprecedented move, the Avalanche traded Rantanen to the Carolina Hurricanes for Martin Necas and Jack Drury. Necas has shown chemistry with Nathan MacKinnon but isn't as effective as the Rantanen-MacKinnon duo.
The good news for the Avalanche was that Rantanen was gone to the Eastern Conference. They hoped he would sign a contract extension with the Hurricanes, and they wouldn't have to see him too much on their schedule. However, after contract talks with the Hurricanes stalled, Carolina moved him back to the Western Conference. Some destinations wouldn't affect the Avalanche as much, but the Hurricanes sent him to a division rival, the Dallas Stars.
Wouldn't you know it, the Avalanche and Stars are on a collision course to play each other in the first round of the playoffs. It's a disaster scenario for MacFarland, as a loss with Rantanen being the star will make him the subject of plenty of jokes. However, it would be a nice justification for the trade if the Avalanche could beat the Stars. It won't be an easy first-round series if the standings remain the same, but the Avalanche will be one of the favorites to win the Stanley Cup if they find their way through.
Avalanche's first round will be the most difficult
The Avalanche and Stars will feel good about their futures if they win the hypothetical first-round matchup. It isn't a guarantee, as the Stars are beginning to gain ground on the Winnipeg Jets for first, but we'll assume the standings stay the same, with the Jets facing the second wild card and the Avalanche and Stars rematch.
The Stars defeated the Avalanche in six games last season, but three of the four wins were close games with empty-netters to make the score seem more lopsided. Colorado could've easily won that series, and they feel the improvements they made in the offseason could be the thing to put them over the top this year.
The good news for the Avalanche is that the path ahead doesn't look as problematic if they can get past the Stars. They defeated the Jets in five games in last year's first round, making them a scary team for the first-place Jets to face. The Central Division looks like the best division in the league, and whichever team makes it out of that group will be looking good.
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The only question is how much the two series wins will take out of that team. The Vegas Golden Knights, Edmonton Oilers, and Los Angeles Kings are all beatable in a seven-game series because of various deficiencies in their game. It looks even worse for the Eastern Conference, as it's a collection of unproven lineups and teams battling injury troubles. The biggest threat coming out of the East will likely be the Florida Panthers if they can return to full health.
Colorado improved in one crucial area
One of the most shocking moments from last year's playoffs was when the Avalanche defeated the Jets in five games. Not because Colorado was a much worse team than Winnipeg, but because of the discrepancy in the goaltending matchup. The Avalanche had Alexandar Georgiev between the pipes, while the Jets were rolling with their Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck.
It felt like only a matter of time before the Avalanche moved on from Georgiev. It was a shame to keep the core of MacKinnon and Makar playing with below-average goaltending. Georgiev wasn't the reason the Avalanche lost to the Stars last season, but he didn't play as well as he did against the Jets.
The Avalanche upgraded their goaltending this season by acquiring MacKenzie Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood in separate deals. Blackwood emerged as the starter and had a case to be on Team Canada at the 4 Nations Face-Off. For the Avalanche to go from Georgiev to Blackwood is an improvement many overlook since it happened earlier in the season.
Colorado has been getting hot at the right time, including Blackwood, who allowed just nine goals over the past five games. Those performances gave him a .927 save percentage over that span. If Blackwood continues that play into the postseason and the scoring carries its weight, the Avalanche will be a difficult out for any team on the Stanley Cup chase.
