March Madness Odds: Pitt vs. Mississippi State prediction, pick

The Pitt Panthers take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Our March Madness odds series has our Pitt Mississippi State prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Pitt Mississippi State.

The college basketball season has taken a long and winding path for both Pitt and Mississippi State, but that path went in the opposite direction for these teams. The Panthers lost three of their first four games this season. Mississippi State went 11-0 before it lost a game. Pittsburgh won 10 of 11 midway through the season and started well in ACC play before losing steam later in the conference season, dropping four of its last seven to nearly fall all the way out of the NCAA Tournament field. Mississippi State slumped midway through the season, losing seven of its first eight SEC games, before grabbing a key win over TCU in nonconference play and then scrambling to win seven of nine SEC games and barely move into the field.

The one point of commonality between these teams, other than the fact that they are both First Four teams which barely made the cut for the field of 68, is that they both won once at their respective conference tournaments, doing just enough to get in. Both then got crushed in quarterfinal games, Pitt by Duke and MSU by Alabama. For most of the season, however, these teams carved out noticeably different paths. One will continue beyond Dayton, and one will not.

Here are the Pitt-Mississippi State March Madness odds, courtesy of FanDuel:

March Madness Odds: Pitt-Mississippi State Odds

Pitt Panthers: +2.5 (-115)

Mississippi State Bulldogs: -2.5 (-105)

Over: 133.5 (-115)

Under: 133.5 (-105)

How To Watch Pitt vs. Mississippi State

TV: TruTV

Stream: CBSSports.com, March Madness app, fuboTV

Time: 9:10 p.m. ET, 6:10 p.m. PT

*Watch Pitt-Mississippi State LIVE with fuboTV (Click for free trial)*

Why Pitt Could Cover The Spread

The Mississippi State Bulldogs have often struggled to score, and that was the case in the SEC Tournament, even in the game the Bulldogs won over Florida. MSU has a terrific low-post player, Tolu Smith, but the guards who play with him often struggle to hit perimeter shots. The Bulldogs get roped into games in which they don't get a lot of help from the backcourt and Smith has to win games by himself. Pitt, with Jamarius Burton, has the backcourt play which can take hold of this game and ensure that the Panthers' guards can outplay MSU's guards. The Panthers can dictate the flow and style of play in this game and get on top of Mississippi State.

Why Mississippi State Could Cover The Spread

If the Bulldogs can play to a draw on the perimeter, then Tolu Smith's advantage in the paint against Pitt's frontcourt will stand out even more. Pitt struggles with size and length. Mississippi State has that combination of qualities in the form of Smith, who should be able to win his matchup and give MSU a big edge on the glass. That's the matchup problem Pitt might not be able to work around in this game.

The other point to make here is that while MSU does sometimes struggle to score, Pitt has played in a relatively weak Atlantic Coast Conference. No team in the ACC this season has an NCAA Tournament seed higher than No. 4 (Virginia). Mississippi State has played tougher competition in the SEC, and that will show up here.

Final Pitt-Mississippi State Prediction & Pick

Stay away from this game. Neither Mississippi State nor Pitt have an especially convincing case to make. These are bubble teams, and they're both flawed. Trusting one team just seems to be asking for trouble.

Final Pitt-Mississippi State Prediction & Pick: Pitt +2.5