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The Cleveland Cavaliers enter the 2025 NBA Cup with both pride and unfinished business. Last season, they looked every bit like a juggernaut, storming out of the gates with a franchise-best 15-0 start and finishing with 64 wins, the top seed in the Eastern Conference. Yet, for all that regular-season brilliance, their dreams of hardware were crushed in two cruelly familiar ways: by the Atlanta Hawks in Group Play and the Indiana Pacers in the playoffs.
Those scars make this year’s Cup campaign feel even more urgent. Cleveland boasts one of the most complete rosters in the NBA, led by Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, and Darius Garland, but the Cup format leaves little margin for error. One bad night can flip the group standings.
The Cavaliers will open their East Group A journey on October 31 against the Toronto Raptors before facing the Washington Wizards, Pacers, and Hawks across November. Here’s a game-by-game breakdown and prediction of how the Cavs' run may unfold.
reAdy for the NBA Cup. #LetEmKnow pic.twitter.com/2nyfVmwxEb
— Cleveland Cavaliers (@cavs) July 9, 2025
Cavs vs. Raptors
The Cavaliers couldn’t ask for a better opening matchup. The Raptors are in a transitional phase, still trying to strike the right balance between developing young talent and competing with a reshaped roster. While Toronto has intriguing pieces, including Scottie Barnes and the recently drafted addition of Collin Murray-Boyles, they remain a team prone to inconsistency.
Cleveland, by contrast, has continuity, star power, and an edge in almost every department. Defensively, Mobley and Jarrett Allen provide a paint-protecting wall that will make it difficult for Barnes and Toronto’s slashers to find easy baskets. Offensively, Mitchell’s ability to score in bursts should help Cleveland build early separation.
With the NBA Cup opener at home, expect the Cavs to ride their defensive intensity and star guard play to a comfortable victory.
Prediction: Cavaliers win comfortably (1-0 in Group Play).
Cavs vs. Wizards
The Wizards represent another favorable matchup for Cleveland. Washington has taken steps toward respectability, especially with the growth of Bilal Coulibaly and their recent draft selections, but they remain at least a year or two away from threatening contenders. Their roster construction lacks the defensive stoppers needed to contain Cleveland’s perimeter attack.
This game projects as another showcase for Mitchell and Garland, with the backcourt exploiting mismatches against Washington’s guards. Mobley’s two-way impact also looms large here, as he can both anchor the defense and punish smaller Wizards lineups offensively.
While Washington may keep it competitive early, Cleveland’s depth and cohesion will overwhelm them in the second half.
Prediction: Cavaliers pull away late (2-0 in Group Play).
Cavs vs. Pacers
This is the most fascinating game of the group. A rematch of last year’s stunning playoff series, the Pacers carry the psychological advantage of having eliminated Cleveland. Tyrese Haliburton's orchestrating, combined with Indiana’s offensive tempo, proved to be Cleveland’s undoing last season, and the Cavs know it.
BACK-TO-BACK CONFERENCE FINALS FOR INDIANA 🏁
Pacers eliminate the 1-seed Cavs in five games to advance! pic.twitter.com/LTIlp4I6Az
— ESPN (@espn) May 14, 2025
Indiana remains a matchup problem. Their ability to play five-out and drag Allen and Mobley into space stretches Cleveland’s defense thin. However, this time, the Cavs should respond differently. After a summer of reflection and tactical adjustments, expect Cleveland to deploy more versatile defensive looks, potentially using Mobley at the five to counter Indiana’s spacing. Mitchell, playing with revenge on his mind, could take over as the game’s defining scorer.
It won’t be easy, but Cleveland’s maturity and adjustments should carry them through.
Prediction: Cavaliers win a nail-biter (3-0 in Group Play).
Cavs vs. Hawks
The group stage finale may decide everything, and unfortunately for Cleveland, it comes against their nemesis. The Hawks not only knocked them out of Cup contention last season but also handed the Cavs their first consecutive losses of the year. Atlanta has retooled once again, bringing in Kristaps Porziņģis alongside Trae Young and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, giving them both size and shooting to stretch Cleveland’s frontcourt.
Cavs were 17-1 before two games against the Hawks.
They are now 17-3. pic.twitter.com/QDPILRDeE5
— Hawks On FanDuel Sports Network (@FanDuelSN_Hawks) November 29, 2024
This matchup is brutal for the Cavaliers. Porziņģis can pull Mobley or Allen away from the rim, weakening Cleveland’s defensive backbone. Young’s playmaking remains a nightmare to defend, particularly if Murray takes on the tougher backcourt defensive assignments to free Young offensively. Atlanta’s offseason moves addressed their weaknesses, making them arguably stronger than last year.
Given the Hawks’ firepower and psychological edge, it’s tough to pick Cleveland here. The Cavs may already be 3-0 entering this game, but the Hawks are likely to have just as much at stake.
Prediction: Hawks edge Cleveland in a high-scoring clash (3-1 Group Play).
What happens next?
If the Cavs finish 3-1, their fate hinges on tiebreakers. Last season, Atlanta’s head-to-head win cost Cleveland the group. This time, though, the Cavs’ superior point differential in their first three wins could keep them alive as a wild card.
From there, Cleveland has the roster to make a deep elimination-round push. Unlike last year, the Cavs should have the playoff sting as added motivation. Facing top Western opponents like the Thunder, Suns, or Nuggets would be daunting, but Cleveland’s balanced roster gives them a fighting chance in one-and-done settings.
Still, the Hawks' matchup looms as their biggest obstacle in the East. Until Cleveland finds a consistent formula against Atlanta’s combination of shooting and playmaking, their Cup ceiling may be capped short of the Final.
The Cavaliers enter the 2025 NBA Cup as one of the East’s best bets to advance out of group play. Their roster continuity, defensive strength, and offensive star power should carry them past Toronto, Washington, and Indiana. But Atlanta remains the thorn in their side, and that final matchup could again decide their Cup destiny.
Even with a projected 3-1 finish, Cleveland has enough firepower to secure a wild-card berth and test itself against the NBA’s elite. Whether they can finally solve the Hawks and exorcise last year’s playoff demons will determine if this Cup journey ends in redemption or another heartbreak.
