North Carolina basketball had become accustomed to being a yearly contender under Roy Williams. Williams coached 18 seasons with the Tar Heels, making the tournament 16 times, with one season the tournament was cancelled due to COVID-19. He also made the Final Four five times, was the runner-up once, and won the title three times. In four seasons under Hubert Davis, they have already missed the tournament once and have made just one Final Four run. It was his first season, when they were the runner-up. North Carolina is likely to make the tournament again this year, but are they real contenders?
Unless things turn around for UNC, they are setting up to be a six-seed. They need to find a way to move up in the seeding. Teams ranked below the five-seed have had trouble in the NCAA tournament. Only three teams that were six seeds or worse have ever won the tournament. Villanova did so as an eight in 1985, Kansas did it as a six in 1988, and UConn as a seven in 2014. Although North Carolina nearly joined that list in 2022. They were an eight seed that year, and lost to Kansas in the finals. They also made the Final Four as an eight in 2000, but those are abnormalities, not the norm.
With other issues at hand, North Carolina is in the pretender category for 2026 March Madness.
Inconsistencies will hurt UNC's chances
North Carolina has been highly inconsistent in their play this year. In the second game of the season, they faced Kansas, winning the game 87-74. Kansas is currently ranked 14th in the nation, and they showed how good the team could be. Still, they would be dominated by Michigan State, looking nearly inept to compete at the top end of college basketball. The next game, they turned around and beat Kentucky.
Regardless, later losses showed more inconsistencies. They lost to SMU, Stanford, and Cal, all of whom are not projected to make the NCAA tournament, although Stanford and Cal are likely on the bubble. Even in the victory over Virginia, North Carolina showed its inconsistencies. UNC was down 10-2 four minutes into the game and struggled to hit a shot. They would also be down nine at the end of the half, as the team could not find points in the first half. They would then score 51 points in the second half, coming away with an 85-80 victory.
The lack of quality play in the first half of a game has been a common theme. North Carolina is 53rd in the nation in first-half scoring, while 136th in opponent points per first half. In the second half, they are 44th in scoring and 46th in opponent points. In the NCAA Tournament, sleepwalking through the first half is a recipe for an upset.
The defense is a detriment
In the last 20 NCAA Tournaments, the champion has ranked in the top 21 in offense and top 31 in defense, per KenPom's rankings, in 19 of the 20 years. North Carolina fits the mold on offense, sitting 21st in offensive rating per KenPom. Still, they are 55th on defense. Of the top 30 teams in KenPom's current overall rankings, only one defense ranks lower, and that is Alabama. Alabama is also third on offense and one of the best scoring units in the nation. The defense is going to be the downfall of UNC in the tournament.
North Carolina is 69th in opponent points per game, but they struggle to create turnovers. The Tar Heels are 277th in opponent assist-to-turnover ratio, while also 338th in creating turnovers. The defense is strong in the paint, sitting fifth in opponent two-point percentage, but they struggle to defend beyond the arc. North Carolina is 168th in opponent three-point percentage, while also sitting 246th in opponent three-pointers made per game. Even if they guard well inside, opponents rarely lose possesion against them, and teams can make up ground in a hurry with the three-ball.
Adding to it, they give up a ton of shots. The team does not play at an exceptionally high tempo, ranking 142nd in adjusted tempo, but gives up 64 attempts per game from the field, which is 353rd in the nation. Defense is a necessity to make a run in the tournament, and North Carolina does not have that right now.
The road to Indianapolis will be difficult
North Carolina has some solid wins this year, including victories over Kentucky, Kansas, and Virginia. Still, some of the losses have damaged their resume. They fell to SMU, Cal, and Stanford, all teams lower in the ACC standings. They still have two games against Duke, plus games with Louisville, Clemson, and Miami ahead of them. Regardless, unless they go on a winning streak or a run in the ACC tournament, the Tar Heels are likely to see a five or six-seed in the tournament.
If they are a five seed, the second round would be against a four, before facing a likely one seed. Teams such as BYU, Florida, Kansas, and Vanderbilt are currently looking like four seeds, which would all be difficult tests for UNC. Moreover, if they land a six seed, they could face a team playing in the first four. Teams playing in the first four, looking to get an 11-seed, have had success in the NCAA tournament. The last time an 11-seed did not upset a six-seed was 2004. It also happened three times in 2024.
Making things more difficult is that some of the currently projected three seeds, according to ESPN's Joe Lunardi, are Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Houston, and Purdue, all teams that would be favored against North Carolina. Only two teams have gone from the six seed to the championship game. Michigan did it in 1992, but lost to Duke. Kansas won it all as a six seed in 1988. Beyond those two teams, only Providence in 1987 has even made it to the Final Four.
The road to Indianapolis will be difficult for UNC, and unless things change in a hurry, the Tar Heels are March Madness pretenders.
