Week 10 of the NFL season is here before we knew it and fans are ready for another wild slate of close finishes. We'll make our bold predictions for one matchup in particular when the Detroit Lions (5-3) visit the Washington Commanders (3-6) on Sunday, November 9 at 4:25 p.m. ET from Landover, Maryland.
The Detroit Lions come into this game following a Week 9 27-24 loss at the hands of the Minnesota Vikings. It's their second loss in just three games as Dan Campbell's squad will hit the road for the next two. While they're considered the favorites to win this game, the Lions won't be overlooking Washington as they try to be dominant in all three phases.
The Washington Commanders return after an embarrassing 38-14 loss at home to the Seattle Seahawks. Even worse, however, was the loss of quarterback Jayden Daniels, who injured his arm in the fourth quarter. The Commanders will have to live with the questionable decision to leave Daniels in the blowout, opting for veteran Marcus Mariota as their quarterback moving forward.
Sportsbooks are billing the Detroit Lions as 8.5-point betting favorites on the road with an implied total for the game set at 48.5 points. Let's take a look at some bold predictions ahead of the 2024 Divisional rematch from last year's playoffs.
Lions vs. Commanders bold predictions – Week 10
Lions' Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery dominate, ‘Sonic & Knuckles' style.
In trailing early 14-7 to the Vikings in the first quarter of their Week 9 loss, the game script favored a passing approach to Detroit's offense as they tried to keep up with Minnesota. QB Jared Goff attempted 37 passes while the backfield of Gibbs (11) and Montgomery (9) saw 20 total carries. Uncharacteristically, they were together held to just 65 yards and 1 touchdown.
While they couldn't script for JJ McCarthy's breakout game last week, the Lions' defense will have a much easier time planning for quarterback Marcus Mariota. While Mariota has been solid in relief this season, he'll be dealing with an insane amount of pressure from the Lions' defensive front, second in the NFL with 28 sacks on the season.
This means the Lions should control the bulk of the offensive possessions throughout this game, running the ball against a Commanders' defense allowing 124.2 rushing yards to opponents per game. Expect both Gibbs and Montgomery to be focal points this week as they should both find the end zone.
TE Zach Ertz becomes the go-to passing option, not Deebo Samuel or Terry McLaurin.
With WR Terry McLaurin coming into Week 10 with a ‘questionable' designation, there's a solid chance he could miss his second game in a row and leave Deebo Samuel the blunt of the target share in games where he's absent. However, Samuel's numbers have taken a visible dip in games where Jayden Daniels isn't playing quarterback. With McLaurin out, Samuel will have to deal with the Lions' best corners along with Mariota's limited ceiling throwing from the pocket.
This opens the door for tight end Zach Ertz to be the ‘security blanket' he has been in the past. Mariota will rely on him for underneath routes and numerous check-downs when dealing with the Lions' pass rush during the game. With Deebo Samuel likely drawing double-teams and the Commanders slated to trail in this game, Zach Ertz could be their most reliable pass catcher throughout this game.
Commanders' QB Marcus Mariota makes an impact rushing the ball
Throughout his career, Mariota has always been known as an athletic quarterback that can break away long runs if he's able to find space. During his last start against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 8, Mariota carried the ball for a season-high eight times. While most of this came in evading the rush, he's broken multiple runs of 20+ yards this season and could stand to do so against this Lions' defense.
The Detroit Lions boast the league's fourth-highest sack percentage (9.62%), but they've been reaching opposing quarterbacks 10.26% of the time over their last three games. Detroit's defensive line will be looking to prove a point against the Commanders coming off a loss, so expect a ton of pressure in the backfield around Marcus Mariota.
Playing into his strengths, expect Marcus Mariota to be scrambling and taking off for yards more often in this game than in his previous starts. His legs will be the greatest chance Washington has at moving the ball down field, opening up big plays for his skill position players.
