The idea changed in the NFL MVP race coming out of Week 15, with Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills making a big statement with a comeback win over Drake Maye and the New England Patriots. In Week 16, the order at the top of the race was restored.
On Sunday morning, a banged-up Allen played a subpar game against the Cleveland Browns as the Bills barely escaped with a victory. At the same time, Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert put on a show against the Dallas Cowboys to get the Chargers to 11-4 on the season.
Later that night, Maye rebounded from an early interception and led two clutch fourth-quarter touchdown drives to overcome an 11-point deficit and beat the Baltimore Ravens in prime time. Earlier in the week, MVP frontrunner Matthew Stafford played one of the best quarterback games of the 2025 season in a loss to the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday night.
Did Maye do enough to move into the top spot? Did Allen drop in the rankings after a rough day?
Honorable mention: Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence, Browns EDGE Myles Garrett, Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
5. Packers QB Jordan Love
Week 16 didn't go as planned for Jordan Love, who left Saturday night's Packers-Bears game with a concussion in the first half. Malik Willis did an admirable job win relief, but it wasn't enough to get a win over the unkillable Bears.
The Packers are now essentially out of the division race, as the Bears need just one win or a Packers loss to clinch the NFC North crown. That, combined with a statistical drop-off due to the injury and the possibility of Love missing Week 17 against the Ravens, drops him down the list.
4. Bills QB Josh Allen
Allen had arguably his worst game of the season on Sunday against a very good Browns defense, which knocks him down a spot in the rankings this week. Out of all qualified passers, the reigning MVP had the second-lowest EPA per dropback (-0.45), above only Brady Cook of the Jets. He finished 12-for-19 with 130 yards in a 23-20 win as the Bills kept pace in the AFC East race.
Allen will have one final public opportunity to make his case for the award when the Bills take on the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 17. However, Buffalo needs the Patriots to lose to either the Dolphins or Jets to have a chance to win the AFC East, and Allen may need the same to happen in order to gain ground on Drake Maye in the MVP race.
3. Chargers QB Justin Herbert
Herbert finally matched up the eye test with the stat sheet on Sunday, carving up the Dallas Cowboys in a 34-17 win for Los Angeles. Is the Cowboys' defense indicative of anything the Chargers will see over the course of the rest of the season? No. Does that take away from what Herbert did in Week 16? Also no.
The Chargers star was the best of the best on Sunday, producing a bonkers +0.72 EPA per dropback during the game to lead the league in Week 16 by a mile. Herbert finished the day 23-for-29 with 300 yards and two touchdowns while running for 42 yards and a score. He has the Chargers sitting at 11-4 on the season, just one game behind the Denver Broncos for first place in the AFC West. If Herbert can knock off the Texans in Week 17, he will get a crack at the Broncos for the division title.
2. Patriots QB Drake Maye
Maye tossed an early interception in the red zone on Sunday night against the Ravens, and then immediately became a master of his craft for the rest of the night. It's rare for anybody to have the level of pocket feel, accuracy, touch and athleticism that Maye has, and he is one of the best in the business in just his second season.
That was on full display while the former No. 3 overall pick led the Patriots on a pair of clutch fourth-quarter touchdown drives, turning a 24-13 deficit into a 28-24 win to stay ahead of the Bills in the AFC East race. Maye has repeatedly come up big in the clutch this season, and he has led one of the most improbable turnarounds in football this year. With two weeks to go, that has him right in the middle of the MVP race.
1. Rams QB Matthew Stafford
Stafford and the Rams lost a 38-37 overtime classic to the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday night, but it had nothing to do with how the veteran quarterback played. Stafford finished 29-for-49 with a whopping 457 yards and three touchdowns on the road against one of the best defenses in football, including a touchdown strike to Puka Nacua on the first possession of overtime.
Will Stafford's case be hurt by the fact that the Rams will very likely be a wild card team in the NFC now? Maybe, but there's an argument to be made that nobody is playing quarterback as well as Stafford has this season. Whether the Rams win the division or not, Stafford is leading a Super Bowl contender with a lethal passing game and is still in the top spot in the MVP rankings for now.
