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The Winnipeg Jets are a Stanley Cup contender in 2025. Winnipeg officially clinched a postseason berth recently. And they are likely to head into the playoffs as one of the top seeds in the league. Perhaps it is to be expected for a team led by the likes of Connor Hellebuyck, Mark Scheifele, and Nikolaj Ehlers. However, looks can be deceiving sometimes.
The Jets know this all too well. Winnipeg has entered the Stanley Cup Playoffs in a similar position in recent years. Every single time this has happened, the result remains the same. Winnipeg wins a couple of games, maybe taking a series with it. However, they eventually stumble, and are eliminated early.
Last season's Jets are a prime example. Winnipeg finished with 110 points on the year. Had it not been for the 113-point Dallas Stars, the Jets would have won the Central Division. Instead, this team took on the Colorado Avalanche in round one. The Jets, again, were Cup contenders. But they bowed out to the Avalanche in five games.
The Jets are looking to avoid a similar fate in 2025. Winnipeg may be at the end of the rope with this current core. Ehlers and Neal Pionk are hitting NHL Free Agency this summer. This is certainly the time for the Jets to make a run. In saying this, there is one flaw the team needs to address if they want to have any postseason success this year.
Jets need regular-season Connor Hellebuyck in the playoffs
Without a doubt, Connor Hellebuyck is the best goaltender in the world. This season, the Jets netminder has made a case to win the Hart Trophy as league MVP. He leads the league with the lowest Goals Against Average and the highest save percentage, according to ESPN. And he is worth nearly two entire wins more above replacement than the next best goalie in terms of WAR, via Evolving Hockey.
All of this would give any team confidence in their goaltender heading into the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Unfortunately, Hellebuyck seems to become a different goalie in the postseason. And he doesn't change in a good way.
Hellebuyck was, as usual, one of the best regular-season goalies in 2023-24. In the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs? He was statically the worst goalie among postseason teams. The Jets netminder finished with -7.28 Goals Against Average and -6.47 Goals Saved Above Expected. Both of these totals were the worst numbers for both categories in last year's playoffs.
Unfortunately, his postseason struggles are not new. Winnipeg has made the Stanley Cup Playoffs four times since 2019-20. Dating back to that season, Hellebuyck's -7.73 GSAA is the third-worst among qualifying goalies. Only Stuart Skinner and Viteck Vanecek have saved fewer goals above average. His GSAx is much better but still a bit unsightly at a -0.03.
It isn't as if the Jets star hasn't performed in the postseason. In fact, the last time Winnipeg made it past the second round, Hellebuyck played a major part in it. The Commerce, Michigan native recorded 5.21 GSAA and 3.42 GSAx in the 2018 run to the Western Conference Finals. He ranked third for GSAA and fifth in GSAx, according to Evolving Hockey.
This is the version of Hellebuyck the Jets need. Much has been said about the team only being as good as he is. And there is some merit to this point, given their recent postseason results. However, Winnipeg has shown the ability to be a more complete team. They need their superstar goalie to back them up if they want any chance of lifting the Stanley Cup in late June this year.
