The 2025 WNBA Finals have finally arrived, and with it comes heightened stakes, historical weight, and a refreshing narrative. For the first time in league history, the Finals will be decided in a best-of-seven format, an innovation that reflects the league’s growth and the increasing depth of competition.

At the heart of this year’s championship series is a dynamic clash between two storied franchises — the recent repeat champion Las Vegas Aces and the resilient Phoenix Mercury. Both teams enter the series with distinctive identities, star power, and vastly different paths to the Finals.

The Aces, perennial title contenders, bring an elite offense powered by MVP-level talent, while the Mercury counter with a hard-nosed defensive approach and a chip-on-the-shoulder mentality.

Las Vegas enters the Finals seeking its third championship in four seasons, following titles in 2022 and 2023. After an uneven start to the 2025 campaign, the team surged late, winning 16 straight games to secure the second seed in the postseason with a 30-14 record.

However, the Aces' playoff run has not been without challenges. In the first round, they were pushed to the brink by the Seattle Storm in a tight three-game series. Then, in a thrilling semifinal matchup against the surging underdog Indiana Fever, the Aces emerged victorious in five games, winning the decisive Game 5 in overtime behind a heroic 35-point performance from star A’ja Wilson.

Las Vegas thrives on offensive firepower, and Wilson, Chelsea Gray, and Jackie Young form a formidable trio capable of dismantling even the league’s toughest defenses. The Aces led the postseason in offensive efficiency, points per game, and effective field goal percentage.

But questions remain, especially around the team's bench depth and defensive consistency. The pressure is immense since, as recent two-time champions and now title favorites, anything short of victory would feel like a failure.

Meanwhile, the Mercury's journey to the Finals has been a story of resilience, transformation, and unexpected dominance. After years of roster turnover and postseason disappointment, this 2025 Mercury squad has reinvented itself as a cohesive and defensively formidable unit.

Finishing the regular season at 27-17, good enough to win the tiebreaker with the defending champion New York Liberty and land the fourth seed, the Mercury entered the playoffs with limited expectations. But they quickly silenced doubters by upsetting that same star- and injury-laden Liberty team in the first round before then knocking off the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx in a hard-fought four-game semifinal series.

This Phoenix team is defined not by individual stardom alone but by collective toughness. Alyssa Thomas, acquired in the offseason like all but two players on the roster, has become the team’s heartbeat, regularly recording triple-doubles and anchoring the defense.

Thomas is flanked by versatile forward Satou Sabally and dynamic scorer Kahleah Copper, forming a Big 3 that balances scoring, rebounding, and transition play. Phoenix’s key strengths — defensive efficiency, rebounding dominance, and mental toughness — position them as a legitimate threat to the championship favorites.

This breakdown of the 2025 WNBA Finals matchup between the Mercury and Aces will explore team trajectories and bold predictions that could shape the outcome of what promises to be a historic and tightly contested series.

1. A’ja Wilson will have a 40-point game

Wilson has already cemented her place among the WNBA’s all-time greats, but in the 2025 Finals, she is poised for a signature moment — one where she puts the team squarely on her back and delivers a masterclass performance. Despite the Mercury’s defensive prowess, Wilson is nearly unguardable when she gets into rhythm, especially in isolation or pick-and-roll situations.

Throughout the postseason, she has averaged over 25 points per game and elevated her scoring when the Aces needed it most, including a 35-point performance in an overtime Game 5 win against Indiana. In the Finals, expect at least one game, likely a pivotal Game 5 or Game 7, where Wilson erupts offensively, scoring 40 or more points.

Phoenix may try to double-team her or force her into mid-range shots, but Wilson’s footwork, touch around the rim, and ability to draw contact make her a matchup nightmare. If Las Vegas wins the title, it will likely be on the back of a transcendent performance fromWilson. The WNBA's only four-time MVP has the chance to solidify her legacy as one of the most dominant postseason performers of her generation.

2. Las Vegas' bench will be exposed

While the Las Vegas Aces boast one of the most talented starting lineups in WNBA history, their relative lack of depth could be their Achilles’ heel in a long series. Throughout the regular season and playoffs, head coach Becky Hammon has leaned heavily on her core group of Wilson, Young, and Gray, often playing them over 35 minutes per game.

In short series, this approach is sustainable. But in a best-of-seven Finals after two full, hard-fought rounds, the wear and tear will accumulate. The pressure will only feel worse when facing a team like Phoenix that excels at wearing opponents down with physical defense and constant motion.

The Mercury’s bench, featuring Sami Whitcomb, DeWanna Bonner, Kathryn Westbeld, and other capable contributors, has shown an ability to maintain energy levels and shift the momentum of games when the starters rest. If Las Vegas suffers from even a minor injury or early foul trouble to a key player, the bench will be thrust into the position of carrying the team, which it has rarely had to face this postseason.

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Over multiple contests, this could lead to mismatches that Phoenix exploits through transition play or mismatched defensive assignments. If the Mercury win this series, the failure of the Aces’ bench to support their stars could be one of the decisive reasons why.

3. At least three games will be decided by five points or fewer

Close games are often the hallmark of great playoff basketball, and this series has all the makings of a nail-biter. Throughout the 2025 WNBA playoffs, both Las Vegas and Phoenix have shown a tendency to thrive in high-pressure moments.

The Mercury pulled off dramatic fourth-quarter comebacks against both the Liberty and Lynx, while the Aces relied on late-game heroics from Wilson and Young to get past the Fever. With defenses tightening, benches shortening, and each possession holding higher value, multiple games should come down to the wire.

Both teams possess elite shot-makers — Gray and Young for Las Vegas, and Copper and Sabally for Phoenix — who are capable of swinging momentum in the final minutes. The contrasting playing styles also suggest that neither team will consistently pull away.

The Mercury's ability to control both tempo and the Aces' explosive scoring potential creates a tension that sets the stage for buzzer-beaters, clutch free throws, and end-of-game drama. Fans should brace themselves for an entertaining series full of heart-stopping finishes.

4. The series will go the distance

The 2025 WNBA Finals mark the first time the league has adopted a best-of-seven series, and it’s fitting that this historic change aligns with such a well-matched and competitive pairing. Both the Aces and the Mercury are loaded with talent, well-coached, and capable of winning either at home or on the road.

Las Vegas, while favored, has occasionally shown vulnerabilities during the postseason, specifically in defending dynamic forwards and in relying too heavily on its starters. On the other hand, Phoenix has won two series as underdogs already and seems to improve with each passing game, especially when faced with adversity.

Given the style and pacing differences between the two teams, with Las Vegas favoring fast tempo and Phoenix preferring gritty, slowed-down basketball, it’s likely that the series will be a back-and-forth chess match. The physicality and strategic depth will test both teams’ endurance, and momentum could shift multiple times. It is difficult to imagine either side dominating early or sweeping the other, meaning all signs point toward a dramatic Game 7 finale i Sin City to crown the champion.

5. Alyssa Thomas wins WNBA Finals MVP

Thomas has emerged as the most impactful all-around player in the 2025 postseason, and with the Mercury winning the championship — spoiler alert, this prediction also means Phoenix will claim the victory in seven — it will be largely because of her. Thomas’s value goes far beyond the box score, but her triple-double threat every night is impressive on its own.

The six-time All-Star initiates offense as a point-forward, sets the tone defensively, dominates the glass, and consistently makes the right decisions in transition and half-court sets. Thomas has led the Mercury in rebounds, assists, and hustle stats like deflections and contested shots so far in the playoffs.

Against a Las Vegas team that struggles at times with off-ball defense and lacks a strong interior rotation beyond Wilson and NaLyssa Smith, Thomas could find mismatches and pick apart defensive coverages with her court vision, passing, and ball movement. Regardless of whether Phoenix pushes this series deep or wins it with a sweep, her two-way contributions will make her the clear choice for Finals MVP, elevating her legacy in WNBA history as one of the most versatile and mentally tough players of her era — and perhaps of all time.

The 2025 WNBA Finals not only promise elite basketball but also mark a watershed moment in the league’s evolution. The first best-of-seven Finals series will be a showcase of endurance, strategy, and adaptability.

For the Aces, it’s a chance to cement a dynasty. For the Mercury, it’s a story of redemption and revival. Regardless of the outcome, fans are in for a historic series that underscores why the WNBA continues to grow in prestige, competitiveness, and global relevance.