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The Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers will face off in the first round of the 2020 playoffs. It's the matchup everyone wanted since the beginning of the restart, as Jimmy Butler's beef with T.J. Warren takes center stage.
The four-five matchup in the playoffs is usually the most evenly matched series. With that said, the Heat-Pacers showdown is going to be hard-fought, grueling and played at a slow pace.
Considering all the factors, let's take a look at three reasons why the Heat will likely defeat the Pacers to advance to the second round of the playoffs.
1. Miami has the best player in the series
The team with the best player in a playoff series tends to win. Butler is the top player on both sides of the ball in this series, and he'll make his impact felt right away.
Moreover, everyone knows Butler is going to have even more adrenaline than usual since he's going up against Warren. The five-time All-Star will likely guard Warren the entire series and make the Pacers wing work hard for every shot attempt.
Jimmy is averaging 19.9 points, 6.7 rebounds and 6.0 assists in his first season with the Heat. His 3-point shooting has been the only negative this campaign, as he is shooting 24.4 percent from deep. That percentage will have to rise in the playoffs if the Heat want to go on a deep run.
Butler's playmaking and scoring skills are expected to be on full display this series, and so is his defensive intensity. He averages 1.8 steals per game this season and is one of the better on-ball defenders in the game.
If for some reason Butler's shot isn't falling against the Pacers, the Texas native will likely still find a way to impact the game and make winning plays.
2. Heat's 3-point shooting is too lethal
The Heat are the No. 1 3-point shooting team in the NBA, at least when it comes to percentage. They also make the sixth-most shots from beyond the arc in a game at 13.
Duncan Robinson, Kendrick Dunn, Goran Dragic, Tyler Herro and Kelly Olynyk have been knocking down triples on a consistent basis for the Heat this season. That trend will likely continue against the Pacers.
When Butler and Bam Adebayo have the ball in the post and attract multiple defenders by collapsing the defense on their drives to the hoop, the Heat's shooters are always ready in a catch-and-shoot position to fire away.
Miami attempts 35 shots from deep per game, and while the shots don't always go in, stretching the floor allows Butler and Adebayo to do their damage in the midrange and post.
The Pacers, meanwhile, aren't an efficient 3-point shooting team and that will be one of their downfalls in this series. The Heat could very well go on a few long-range shooting streaks to blow the game wide open in the second half.
3. Pacers likely won't have Domantas Sabonis
Domantas Sabonis remains out indefinitely with plantar fasciitis. While the Pacers haven't officially ruled him out for the playoffs, both Miami and Indiana are going into the series not expecting Sabonis to play.
This is a huge loss for the Pacers and a great break for the Heat. Sabonis is averaging 18.5 points, 12.4 rebounds and 5.0 assists in 34.8 minutes a night this season. He's one of the best passers in the league from the big man position and could have given Adebayo fits on both sides of the floor.
In the end, the Heat have the better offense in this series and will likely benefit from the absence of Sabonis and from the fact that Victor Oladipo may not be back to himself just yet as he makes his way from a serious knee injury. The two-time All-Star put up 14.5 points in 19 games this season, all while shooting 39.4 percent from the field and 31.7 percent from beyond the arc.
The Heat should be able to win this series in five or six games. However, Miami has to make sure Oladipo and Warren don't take over games with their scoring ability. If either player gets hot, the South Beach franchise can take a page out of the Brooklyn Nets book and trap Oladipo or Warren at half-court to get the ball out of their hands. The Nets did that against Portland Trail Blazers superstar Damian Lillard.
With Butler, Adebayo and Dragic — three productive scorers — leading the charge for the Heat against the Pacers, Miami is set up to come out victorious. Their tenacious defense, though, may prove to be more important in this series.
