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We're back with another betting prediction and pick for UFC Vegas 104 as we head to the Flyweight (125) Division for this next bout. Fresh prospects will square-off as Daniel Barez of Spain fights Andre Lima of Brazil early into their UFC stints. Check the UFC odds series for our Barez-Lima prediction and pick.
Daniel Barez (17-6) has gone 1-1 inside the UFC since 2023. He actually appeared on Dana White's Contender Series back in 2021 where he dropped the contract opportunity with a split decision loss. After finding his way back, he'll look to build momentum after gaining his first win in the big show. Barez stands 5-foot-6 with a 66-inch reach.
Andre Lima (10-0) has gone a perfect 3-0 in the UFC throughout 2024. After infamously gaining his first UFC win after being bitten by his opponent, Lima won his next two fights by decision over Mitch Raposo and Felipe dos Santos. He'll look to remain perfect as the stern betting favorite. Lima stands 5-foot-7 with a 67.5-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 104 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 104 Odds: Daniel Barez-Andre Lima Odds
Daniel Barez: +285
Andre Lima: -360
Over 2.5 rounds: -210
Under 2.5 rounds: +160
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Why Daniel Barez Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Victor Altamirano – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 6 SUB
Daniel Barez has to be feeling confident following a decisive win over an established UFC fighter like Victor Altamirano for his first win with the promotion. He was caught off-guard with a submission loss in his debut, but it was clear that Barez made all the necessary adjustments to come back better in his return fight. He has a very high fight-IQ and does everything intentionally, especially when he's closing the distance against opponents.
Barez does a great job of standing in the pocket and landing accurate shots. He's landing four significant strikes per minute at 52% accuracy, so he's not scared to take the center of the octagon and mix things up. He's the much more prolific finisher compared to his opponent and he's able to mix his grappling and striking very well when doing so. If he continues to evolve and learn from his mistakes as he has been, he could be a live dog as this fight gets deeper into its rounds.
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Why Andre Lima Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Felipe dos Santos – U DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 5 KO/TKO
Andre Lima took a DQ victory in his debut and ran with it, building momentum in his next two fights as an exciting talent with a ton of finishing upside. As we saw in his DWCS audition, he's extremely aggressive with his kicks to all three levels and isn't scared to back opponents up against the cage early. He hits like a truck given his size and he's very quick about making adjustments when striking from the pocket. One of his greatest strengths is his head movement under pressure, so expect him to try and bait his opponent by offering his chin and counter striking.
Andre Lima is the far better athlete during this matchup and it'll become apparent that he's got more raw talent than his opponent. He's also only absorbing 2.48 strikes per minute compared to Barez absorbing just 5.05, so expect him to be landing more often and more effectively throughout this fight. While his chin is a solid one, he'll need to be wary of the sneaky power coming back his way from Barez.
Final Daniel Barez-Andre Lima Prediction & Pick
This is primed to be an exciting matchup between two experienced and technical strikers. Daniel Barez has only gotten better since his first DWCS appearance and his last win proved to be the most impressive of his career. Andre Lima has had a path of less resistance, but it's resulted in a perfect record with half of his wins coming by way of knockout.
While both men posses great power with their hands, they're both also very durable and I don't see this fight ending in a knockout finish. Instead, this has the makings of a “fight of the night” effort as both men will be willing to stand in the pocket and trade heavy shots.
Ultimately, while I believe Daniel Barez is the more polished striker in terms of landing clean and making the most of his opportunities, Lima throws at a much higher rate and is far superior from a defensive standpoint. This could come down to who can avoid more shots and we have to favor Lima's head movement in that regard.
For our final pick, we'll roll with Andre Lima to win this fight by decision and both men combine for an exciting, back-and-forth affair early into this card.
Final Daniel Barez-Andre Lima Prediction & Pick: Andre Lima (-360); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-210)
