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The time has finally come as we're set to bring you a betting prediction and pick for this headlining bout at UFC 316, a Championship tilt for the Bantamweight (135) strap. Champion Merab Dvalishvili of Georgia will defend his belt against No. 1 contender Sean O'Malley. Check the UFC odds series for our Dvalishvili-O'Malley prediction and pick.
Merab Dvalishvili (19-4) has gone 12-2 inside the UFC en route to becoming champion. He rides one of the UFC's longest active winning streaks at 10 fights and won his first title defense against Umar Nurmagomedov most recently. Now, he'll look to once again take down O'Malley as he defends his belt. Dvalishvili stands 5-foot-6 with a 68-inch reach.
Sean O'Malley (18-2) is 10-2-0-1 in his UFC career after formerly serving as Bantamweight champ. He also defended his belt on one occasion but notably lost his belt to Dvalishvili during their first meeting. He's one of the biggest stars in the sport and will look to get his revenge over the current champ. O'Malley stands 5-foot-11 with a 72-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 316 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 316 Odds: Merab Dvalishvili-Sean O'Malley 2 odds
Merab Dvalishvili: -285
Sean O'Malley: +230
Over 4.5 rounds: -280
Under 4.5 rounds: +210
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Why Merab Dvalishvili will win
- Last Fight: (W) Umar Nurmagomedov – U DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 3 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Merab Dvalishvili continues his run as champion following his most recent unanimous decision over Umar Nurmagomedov.
While many thought Nurmagomedov was the perfect opponent to stop the champ, Dvalishvili proved once again why he's the “Machine” and no one can keep up with his blistering grappling and cardio. His striking has also seen minor improvements, but chain wrestling and volume will once again be the key to stopping O'Malley this second time around.
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Merab managed to land six of his 15 takedown attempts against Sean O'Malley during their first bout, but it was his 214-49 striking discrepancy that stood out most about his performance.
His ability to march forward and land strikes while on the ground completely negated O'Malley's offense and made the bout truly one-sided. In terms of this rematch, Dvalishvili can rest easy knowing a similar game plan could get the job done once again.
Dvalishvili's biggest strength is his cardio and ability to keep his foot on the gas while mixing in takedowns, so expect him to constantly keep the pressure on his opponent during this one. He's also not at much risk of getting knocked out, so he'll be extremely aggressive in closing the distance and engaging with the challenger.
Why Sean O'Malley will win
- Last Fight: (L) Merab Dvalishvili – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-1-0-1
- Finishes: 11 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
Sean O'Malley's last showing against Dvalishvili was very uncharacteristic, and it was clear that he couldn't find a striking rhythm throughout the entirety of the bout.
While much of this was due to Dvalishvili's pressure, O'Malley was clearly worried about the takedown attempts and didn't want to close the distance more often than not. During this fight, he'll need to find a striking groove immediately and force the champion to make quick decisions and resort to his grappling.
O'Malley notably made some wholesale changes on his outlook and life outside of the octagon before this fight, so we should see an extremely focused and motivated version of him ahead of this one.
His training with Tim Welch is also one of the best in the UFC, so it's certain that the lifelong friends will come up with a solid game plan, having already seen this look from their opponent.
To win this fight, O'Malley has to remain on his feet and not shy away from closing the distance against Dvalishvili. He's not at risk of being knocked out due to Merab's style, so it would benefit him to be the more aggressive striker and close the distance every chance he gets.
Final Merab Dvalishvili-Sean O'Malley 2 prediction & pick
This is certainly an interesting rematch, given the first meeting between these two wasn't particularly close. We'll have to see some serious changes in the approach from O'Malley if he wants to win this fight. Otherwise, we could see Dvalishvili cruise to another decision win where he controls the pace and isn't under much danger throughout this one.
Still, I think game plan is everything, and Sean O'Malley is intelligent enough to come up with an effective plan to both stop the grappling and get his own shots off. On the other hand, we know what to expect from Dvalishvili as pressure, wrestling, and pace will be his approach once again.
Still, we'll take a chance on Sean O'Malley to regain his belt simply due to the value in the betting line. I can see both men meeting once again in the future, as we should be in for another exciting trilogy in this division.
Final Merab Dvalishvili-Sean O'Malley 2 prediction & pick: Sean O'Malley (+230)
