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UFC Atlanta: Kamaru Usman versus Joaquin Buckley continues the main card with the main event between Kamaru Usman and Joaquin Buckley in the welterweight division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Usman-Buckley prediction and pick.
Kamaru Usman (20-4) returns to action after a 19-month layoff, looking to snap a three-fight skid. Usman dropped a majority decision to Khamzat Chimaev in his last bout and lost a five-round title fight to Leon Edwards before that. Now, Usman aims to halt Joaquin Buckley’s rise at UFC Atlanta this Saturday night.
Joaquin Buckley (21-6) enters UFC Atlanta on a six-fight win streak since dropping to welterweight, including a third-round knockout of Colby Covington last December and a KO of Stephen Thompson in October. Now, Buckley looks to cement his title contender status by derailing former champ Kamaru Usman’s comeback this Saturday night.
Here are the UFC Atlanta Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Atlanta Odds: Kamaru Usman-Joaquin Buckley Odds
Kamaru Usman: +230
Joaquin Buckley: -285
Over 4.5 rounds: -115
Under 4.5 rounds: -115
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Why Kamaru Usman Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Khamzat Chimaev – DEC
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 10 (9 KO/TKO/1 SUB)
Kamaru Usman’s path to victory over Joaquin Buckley at UFC Atlanta rests on his championship pedigree, elite wrestling, and proven five-round cardio. Despite being 38 and coming off a layoff, Usman’s experience in high-stakes main events gives him a tactical edge over Buckley, who has yet to compete beyond three rounds at welterweight.
Usman’s wrestling remains a major weapon, and he can use it to control the pace, sap Buckley’s explosiveness, and limit the younger fighter’s knockout opportunities. Buckley’s takedown defense is solid, but Usman’s relentless chain wrestling and top control have frustrated even the division’s best, and he’s adept at grinding out rounds in the clinch or on the mat.
If Usman can avoid Buckley’s early power shots and drag the fight into the championship rounds, his durability and fight IQ could expose Buckley’s relative inexperience in five-round wars. Usman’s striking, while not as dynamic as Buckley’s, is still effective enough to set up level changes and keep Buckley guessing.
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Ultimately, Usman’s combination of wrestling, composure, and main event experience could allow him to neutralize Buckley’s offense and secure a hard-fought decision or late stoppage, reaffirming his place among the welterweight elite.
Why Joaquin Buckley Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Colby Covington – KO/TKO R3
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 15 (15 KO/TKO)
Joaquin Buckley is primed to defeat Kamaru Usman at UFC Atlanta, riding a six-fight win streak and showing explosive improvements since dropping to welterweight. Buckley’s power-based striking, forward-pressing aggression, and high output, he boasts a +1.09 significant strike differential per five minutes, make him a constant threat, especially against an aging Usman who has not won since 2021.
At 31, Buckley is in his athletic prime, while Usman, now 38, is coming off a 19-month layoff and three consecutive losses, with visible signs of decline in speed, explosiveness, and movement due to years of wear and knee issues. Buckley’s takedown defense sits at 73%, and he’s proven difficult to control, as seen in his recent wins over elite wrestlers like Colby Covington, whom he finished in the third round.
If Buckley can keep the fight standing, his power and pace can overwhelm Usman, whose recent performances have been marked by slower starts and diminished ability to impose his wrestling. Buckley’s momentum, youth, and ability to finish fights make him the favorite to hand Usman his fourth straight loss and stake his claim as a top welterweight contender.
Final Kamaru Usman-Joaquin Buckley Prediction & Pick
Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley headlines UFC Atlanta in a true crossroads main event, pitting the decorated former champion against a surging contender on a six-fight win streak. Usman, now 38 and returning after a 19-month layoff, is seeking to avoid a fourth straight defeat and prove he still belongs among the welterweight elite. His championship experience, wrestling pedigree, and fight IQ remain assets, but recent performances have shown diminished explosiveness and mobility, likely due to years of wear and knee issues.
Buckley, meanwhile, has reinvented himself since dropping to welterweight, racking up four knockouts in six consecutive wins and most recently stopping Colby Covington and Stephen Thompson. He brings relentless forward pressure, explosive striking, and solid takedown defense, making him a dangerous matchup for an aging Usman. Buckley’s youth, momentum, and activity rate could be decisive, especially if he keeps the fight standing and pushes a high pace.
If Usman can impose his wrestling and drag Buckley into deep waters, his experience could tilt the contest in his favor, particularly in the later rounds. However, the odds and recent form suggest Buckley’s power and output may be too much for Usman at this stage, making Buckley the favorite to notch another statement win in Atlanta.
Final Kamaru Usman-Joaquin Buckley Prediction & Pick: Joaquin Buckley (-285),
