UFC 316: Merab Dvalishvili versus Sean O'Malley 2 continues on the main card with a women's bantamweight title fight between Julianna Pena and Jack Della Maddalena on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Pena-Harrison prediction and pick.

Julianna Pena (13-5) reclaimed the UFC women’s bantamweight title in her last fight, edging Raquel Pennington by split decision at UFC 307 after a competitive five-round battle. Now, Pena looks to defend her belt for the first time against two-time Olympic gold medalist Kayla Harrison at UFC 316 this Saturday night.

Kayla Harrison (18-1) punched her ticket to UFC 316’s title shot with a dominant unanimous-decision win over Ketlen Vieira at UFC 307, showcasing her world-class grappling and control. Previously, Harrison submitted Holly Holm in her promotional debut. Now, she looks to claim UFC gold against champion Julianna Pena this Saturday night.

Here are the UFC 316 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC 316 Odds: Julianna Pena-Kayla Harrison odds

Julianna Pena: +525

Kayla Harrison: -750

Over 4.5 rounds: +145

Under 4.5 rounds: -188

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Why Julianna Pena will win

  • Last Fight: (W) Raquel Pennington – DEC
  • Last 5: 3-2
  • Finishes: 7 (3 KO/TKO/4 SUB)

Julianna Pena has a proven knack for thriving as the underdog, and she’s poised to do it again against Kayla Harrison at UFC 316. Peña’s relentless pressure, cardio, and ability to turn uncomfortable positions into opportunities have been highlighted by former opponents and analysts alike.

Her experience in championship rounds and her refusal to give opponents a moment to breathe could be key, especially as Harrison has shown signs of slowing down in later rounds, most notably against Ketlen Vieira. Pena’s “bulletproof gas tank” and mental toughness ensure she’ll push the pace, forcing Harrison to work at a tempo she hasn’t consistently faced in MMA.

Technically, Pena’s well-rounded style, combining BJJ, Muay Thai, and scrappy wrestling, gives her the tools to survive and even thrive in grappling exchanges. While Harrison’s judo and top control are elite, Pena's unpredictability, ability to scramble, and knack for submissions from any position make her a live threat throughout the fight.

Suppose Pena can drag Harrison into deep waters and capitalize on any fatigue or overcommitment. In that case, she has the experience and grit to pull off another upset, defending her title and cementing her reputation as one of the most resilient champions in UFC history.

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Why Kayla Harrison will win

  • Last Fight: (W) Ketlen Vieira – DEC
  • Last 5: 4-1
  • Finishes: 13 (6 KO/TKO/7 SUB)

Kayla Harrison is favored to dethrone Julianna Pena at UFC 316 thanks to her world-class grappling and athletic pedigree. A two-time Olympic gold medalist and former PFL champion, Harrison has seamlessly transitioned to the UFC, dominating Holly Holm with a second-round submission and controlling Ketlen Vieira for a unanimous-decision win.

Her superior judo and relentless top control have overwhelmed every opponent so far, and Pena's historically low takedown defense rate (just 23%) presents a clear path for Harrison to dictate where the fight takes place. While Pena is known for her toughness and ability to pull off upsets, Harrison’s technical edge in both grappling and athleticism is significant.

Harrison's ability to secure takedowns and maintain dominant positions should allow her to rack up control time and inflict damage from the top. Pena's scrappy style and submission skills may help her survive, but Harrison’s relentless pressure and ground-and-pound could lead to a TKO or a wide decision victory.

If Harrison executes her game plan, she’s poised to not only win the title but also solidify her status as a new face of women’s MMA in the UFC.

Final Julianna Pena-Kayla Harrison prediction & pick

The UFC 316 co-main event between Julianna Pena and Kayla Harrison is one of the most anticipated women’s bantamweight title fights in recent memory. Pena, the reigning champion, enters as a significant underdog against the two-time Olympic gold medalist and former PFL champion Harrison, who has quickly established herself as a dominant force since joining the UFC.

Harrison’s grappling and top control are expected to dictate much of the fight, with oddsmakers and most analysts predicting she will be able to take Pena down and control her on the mat. Peña, however, is renowned for her grit, cardio, and ability to thrive as an underdog, having shocked the world before by submitting Amanda Nunes.

If Pena can survive the early rounds and drag Harrison into deep waters, her relentless pressure and championship experience could make things interesting, especially if Harrison slows down late. Still, the consensus leans toward Harrison’s superior athleticism and technical edge in the grappling department.

The most likely outcome is Harrison using her judo and ground-and-pound to win a clear decision or potentially a late TKO.

Final Julianna Pena-Kayla Harrison prediction & pick: Kayla Harrison (-750), over 4.5 rounds (+145)