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We're back with another betting prediction and pick for UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 as we head to the Middleweight (185) Division for this next clash. UFC veteran Kelvin Gastelum will face Pennsylvania's Joe Pyfer in a can't-miss fight on the feet! Check the UFC odds series for our Gastelum-Pyfer prediction and pick.
Kelvin Gastelum (19-9) has gone 13-9-0-1 since joining the UFC roster back in 2013. After losing back-to-back fights in 2021 and having a number of bouts fall through, he returned to action and has since posted a 2-1 record. He'll look for another high-profile win as he continues his march towards a spot in the rankings. Gastelum stands 5-foot-9 with a 71.5-inch reach.
Joe Pyfer (13-3) has gone 4-1 inside the UFC since 2022. After opening his UFC run with three straight wins, he dropped his first bout against Jack Hermansson in 2024. He bounced back with a win over Marc-Andre Barriault and will continue his journey towards the rankings. Pyfer stands 6-foot-2 with a 75-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 316 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 316 Odds: Kelvin Gastelum-Joe Pyfer odds
Kelvin Gastelum: +300
Joe Pyfer: -380
Over 2.5 rounds: -130
Under 2.5 rounds: +100
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Why Kelvin Gastelum will win
- Last Fight: (W) Daniel Rodriguez – U DEC
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 5 SUB
Kelvin Gastelum looked extremely sharp during his last fight against Daniel Rodriguez, putting together a complete striking performance and limiting his damage on the feet.
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Gastelum has been a part of some classic wars within this division throughout the years, but he'll want to limit his damage moving forward for obvious reasons. If he's focused and in great shape, he should be able to put together another winning effort.
Gastelum's physical shape has been a question in the past, but it rarely affects his cardio and ability to stay on the gas for three rounds.
He'll have to push the pace against an aggressive striker like Joe Pyfer, so expect him to meet Pyfer in the center of the octagon as they trade exchanges. His hand speed should be on par if not better, so counter-punching will be the name of the game for him in this one.
To be successful here, Gastelum will have to keep his head moving and hope that Pyfer over-extends himself and leaves his chin exposed. His knockout power is still relevant, but it'll take a multitude of clean shots for Pyfer to drop during this one.
Why Joe Pyfer will win
- Last Fight: (W) Marc-Andre Barriault – KO (overhand right, R1)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 9 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Joe Pyfer showed his resolve in bouncing back with a win following a loss, and given his motivated nature, we can expect him to only keep getting better as his career advances. This matchup is tailor-made for him as he's the bigger, stronger fighter and won't shy away from Gastelum's ability to engage opponents in a chaotic scrap.
Pyfer is also very solid on the ground with his jiu jitsu thanks to training with the likes of Sean Brady and other fighters in their Philadelphia-area gym. His takedown defense is just 50% up to this point, but he's great with defending submissions and won't plan to spend too much time there given the style of his opponent.
To be successful here, Pyfer will simply have to be first in the exchanges and hit Gastelum clean on his chin. Not many people can withstand a clean punch from Pyfer as he possesses unusual striking power, so expect him to be ready for a banger where both fighters are bound to land their licks.
Final Kelvin Gastelum-Joe Pyfer prediction & pick
This will be a very interesting fight as UFC veteran Kelvin Gastelum looks to establish himself once again opposite one of the rising stars of this division. Both men are known for their propensity to brawl and aim for the knockout, so fans should be in for a wild fight when these two take the octagon.
Kelvin Gastelum is accustomed to these type of opponents as he's often at a physical disadvantage, but he's one of the division's most savvy strikers and will undoubtedly find a way to expose the gaps in Pyfer's striking game. However, for Pyfer, it only takes one clean shot to knock the lights out, and while Gastelum has yet to be KO-ed, Pyfer certainly has the power to be the first.
For our final prediction, we have to roll with Joe Pyfer to get the win in this one. Furthermore, I expect him to impress with a viral knockout as he's constantly growing and evolving his game, whereas Gastelum may be a fighter stuck in his usual ways.
Final Kelvin Gastelum-Joe Pyfer Prediction & Pick: Joe Pyfer (-380), under 2.5 rounds (+100)
