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UFC Atlanta: Kamaru Usman versus Joaquin Buckley continues the prelims with a fight between Paul Craig and Rodolfo Bellato in the light heavyweight division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Craig-Bellato prediction and pick.
Paul Craig (17-9-1) is looking to snap a three-fight skid as he returns to light heavyweight at UFC Atlanta. After a knockout loss to Caio Borralho and a decision defeat to Bo Nickal, Craig aims to rediscover his finishing form and derail Rodolfo Bellato’s momentum this Saturday night.
Rodolfo Bellato (12-2-1) comes into UFC Atlanta unbeaten in his last five, looking to build on a majority draw with Jimmy Crute in February, where he rallied after a rough opening round. Before that, Bellato scored a dominant second-round TKO over Ihor Potieria. Now, Bellato aims to halt Paul Craig’s comeback this Saturday night.
Here are the UFC Atlanta Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Atlanta Odds: Paul Craig-Rodolfo Bellato Odds
Paul Craig: +310
Rodolfo Bellato: -395
Over 1.5 rounds: -125
Under 1.5 rounds: -105
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Why Paul Craig Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Bo Nickal – DEC
- Last 5: 1-4
- Finishes: 17 (4 KO/TKO/13 SUB)
Paul Craig’s best path to victory over Rodolfo Bellato at UFC Atlanta is his elite submission game and ability to turn the tide from his back. With 13 of his 17 career wins coming by submission, Craig has repeatedly shown he can snatch victory even when outgunned on the feet. He’s pulled off dramatic finishes against top-tier opponents, including current and former champions, and his trademark triangle chokes remain a constant threat whenever the fight hits the mat.
Bellato is an aggressive striker with high output, but his defensive flaws, allowing over six significant strikes per minute, leave openings for Craig to pull guard or bait him into grappling exchanges. While Bellato has a perfect takedown defense so far, he’s still green in UFC-level competition, and his cardio was exposed in the later rounds against Jimmy Crute. If Craig can weather Bellato’s early storm and drag the fight into deeper waters, his experience and opportunistic grappling could pay dividends.
Craig’s history of upsetting rising prospects and his ability to finish from seemingly impossible positions make him a live underdog. If Bellato overcommits or tires, Craig’s submission skills could once again deliver a signature comeback win at light heavyweight.
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Why Rodolfo Bellato Will Win
- Last Fight: (D) Jimmy Crute
- Last 5: 3-1-1
- Finishes: 11 (7 KO/TKO/4 SUB)
Rodolfo Bellato is favored to beat Paul Craig at UFC Atlanta due to a combination of youth, athleticism, and a pronounced striking advantage. Bellato lands 6.28 significant strikes per minute at an impressive 62% accuracy, more than doubling Craig’s output and accuracy, and consistently pressures opponents with high-volume offense. His physicality and knockout power were evident in his stoppage win over Ihor Potieria and his ability to rally for a draw against Jimmy Crute, showing both finishing instincts and resilience.
Crucially, Bellato’s 85% takedown defense and ability to keep fights standing limit Craig’s best weapon—his submission game. Craig has struggled when unable to bring opponents to the mat, losing five of his last six, often being outstruck and finished by aggressive, athletic fighters. Bellato’s willingness to initiate grappling is tempered by his own solid jiu-jitsu, but he’s generally able to dictate the range and tempo, making it hard for Craig to pull guard or set up submissions.
If Bellato avoids Craig’s early submission traps, his youth, durability, and striking output should allow him to control the action, land the cleaner shots, and either secure a late stoppage or a decisive decision win, cementing his status as a rising contender at light heavyweight.
Final Rodolfo Bellato-Paul Craig Prediction & Pick
Rodolfo Bellato vs. Paul Craig at UFC Atlanta is a classic “striker vs. grappler” matchup with clear strengths and vulnerabilities on both sides. Bellato enters as a sizable favorite, boasting a powerful striking arsenal and landing over six significant strikes per minute, but his defensive liabilities, absorbing just as many strikes, leave him open to counters and grappling transitions. Early in the fight, Bellato’s athleticism and knockout power are likely to put Craig in danger, especially if the bout stays standing.
Craig, meanwhile, is a world-class submission artist with a history of pulling off dramatic finishes even when behind, including a win over current champion Magomed Ankalaev. His striking remains limited, but if he can survive Bellato’s early onslaught and drag the fight to the mat, his submission game becomes a major threat, particularly as Bellato’s cardio has shown signs of fading after the first round.
The large cage in Atlanta favors Bellato’s movement and striking, but if Craig can weather the storm and force grappling exchanges in the later rounds, the momentum could shift quickly. Expect Bellato to dominate early landing some flush putting Craig away under 1.5 rounds.
Final Rodolfo Bellato-Paul Craig Prediction & Pick: Rodolfo Bellato (-395), Under 1.5 Rounds (-105)
