UFC 316: Merab Dvalishvili versus Sean O'Malley 2 continues on the main card with a fight between Vicente Luque and Jack Della Maddalena in the welterweight division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Luque-Holland prediction and pick.

Vicente Luque (23-10-1) bounced back from a knockout loss to Joaquin Buckley by submitting Themba Gorimbo in just 52 seconds at UFC 310. Prior to that, Luque earned a five-round decision over Rafael dos Anjos, showcasing his durability and grappling. Now, he faces Kevin Holland at UFC 316.

Kevin Holland (27-13, 1 NC) snapped a two-fight skid with a unanimous decision win over Gunnar Nelson in March, showcasing sharp striking and composure at welterweight. Prior to that, Holland was submitted by Reinier de Ridder at UFC 311. Now, Holland aims for back-to-back wins against Vicente Luque at UFC 316.

Here are the UFC 316 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC 316 Odds: Vicente Luque-Kevin Holland Odds

Vicente Luque: +220

Kevin Holland: -270

Over 1.5 rounds: -175

Under 1.5 rounds: +135

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Why Vicente Luque Will Win

  • Last Fight: (W) Themba Gorimbo – SUB R1
  • Last 5: 2-3
  • Finishes: 20 (11 KO/TKO/9 SUB)

Vicente Luque is primed to defeat Kevin Holland at UFC 316 by leveraging his well-rounded skill set and relentless finishing instinct. Luque, currently ranked No. 14 at welterweight, boasts a dynamic blend of Muay Thai striking and black belt-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu, making him a threat both on the feet and the mat.

He’s coming off a statement win, a 52-second technical submission over Themba Gorimbo, which showcased his ability to capitalize on openings and end fights quickly. With 14 finishes in the UFC, Luque consistently hunts for stoppages, and his aggressive style thrives against opponents willing to engage, like Holland.

Holland, while dangerous and unpredictable, has struggled against opponents who can mix striking with effective grappling and pressure. Luque’s experience against elite competition, coupled with his urgency to re-enter the title conversation, will push him to dictate the pace and exploit Holland’s defensive lapses, particularly in the clinch and on the ground.

Expect Luque to close the distance, unleash damaging combinations, and threaten with submissions if the fight hits the canvas. If he maintains his trademark aggression and avoids Holland’s long-range attacks, Luque has the tools to secure a finish and reassert himself as a contender in the welterweight division.

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Why Kevin Holland Will Win

  • Last Fight: (W) Gunnar Nelson – DEC
  • Last 5: 2-3
  • Finishes: 22 (13 KO/TKO/9 SUB)

Kevin Holland has the tools to defeat Vicente Luque at UFC 316, thanks to his unique blend of reach, striking creativity, and opportunistic grappling. Holland stands 6’3” with an 81-inch reach, one of the longest in the division, which allows him to keep opponents at bay with sharp jabs, rangy kicks, and unpredictable attacks.

His kung fu-based striking and black belt Brazilian jiu-jitsu background mean he can threaten from distance and in scrambles, making him a difficult puzzle for any opponent to solve. Holland’s recent unanimous decision win over Gunnar Nelson showed improved composure and defensive awareness, signaling he’s tightening up the gaps that previously led to losses against high-level grapplers.

Luque is dangerous, but he’s been hittable in recent fights and can struggle against fighters who use movement and length to frustrate his pressure. Holland’s ability to mix up his attacks, land powerful right crosses, and punish opponents with knees and elbows in the clinch could disrupt Luque’s rhythm.

If Holland keeps the fight standing and avoids prolonged grappling exchanges, his reach and striking output should allow him to outpoint Luque over three rounds or even find a finish. A win here would reestablish Holland as a serious threat in the welterweight division.

Final Vicente Luque-Kevin Holland Prediction & Pick

Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland at UFC 316 is a compelling clash between a proven finisher and an unpredictable striker, with both fighters seeking to climb the welterweight ranks. Luque enters as the No. 14 contender, fresh off a lightning-fast submission win over Themba Gorimbo, and remains one of the division’s most dangerous submission artists, boasting 11 KOs and nine submissions in his career.

Holland comes in after a composed decision victory over Gunnar Nelson, and his 81-inch reach and varied striking arsenal make him a difficult matchup for anyone at 170 pounds. Holland’s right hand is a proven fight-ender, and his improved takedown defense could help him avoid Luque’s submission threats.

However, Luque’s relentless pressure, finishing instincts, and ability to capitalize on grappling exchanges mean he’s always a threat to turn the tide, especially if he can get inside Holland’s reach and work his submission game. Expect a competitive bout with momentum swings. Holland’s reach and striking may control the early rounds, but Luque’s aggression and submission skills could make it dangerous late. Slight edge to Holland by decision or late stoppage to extend his winning streak to two in a row.

Final Vicente Luque-Kevin Holland Prediction & Pick: Kevin Holland (-270), Over 1.5 rounds (-175)