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UFC Atlanta: Kamaru Usman versus Joaquin Buckley continues the main card with a fight between Malcolm Wellmaker and Kris Moutinho in the bantamweight division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Wellmaker-Moutinho prediction and pick.
Malcolm Wellmaker (9-0) enters UFC Atlanta with serious momentum after back-to-back first-round knockouts. He earned his UFC contract by flattening Adam Bramhald in under three minutes on Dana White’s Contender Series, then made a statement in his UFC debut by stopping Cameron Saaiman in just e1:59 of round one this April. Now, Wellmaker looks to keep his perfect record intact against the returning Kris Moutinho in front of a home crowd this weekend.
Kris Moutinho (14-6) returns to the UFC riding a five-fight win streak, all by stoppage since leaving the promotion in 2022. Most recently, he scored a TKO win over Johnny Campbell in November and a third-round KO of Elijah Harris in May. Now, Moutinho aims to spoil Malcolm Wellmaker’s unbeaten run in Atlanta.
Here are the UFC Atlanta Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Atlanta Odds: Malcolm Wellmaker-Kris Moutinho Odds
Malcolm Wellmaker: -1800
Kris Moutinho: +1000
Over 1.5 rounds: +135
Under 1.5 rounds: -175
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Why Malcolm Wellmaker Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Cameron Saaiman
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 7 (5 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Malcolm Wellmaker enters UFC Atlanta with momentum and a skill set tailor-made to exploit Kris Moutinho’s defensive lapses. Wellmaker’s knockout power is exceptional for the bantamweight division, as evidenced by his first-round finishes of Adam Bramhald on Dana White’s Contender Series and Cameron Saaiman in his UFC debut, which earned him a Performance of the Night bonus.
Moutinho is known for his relentless pressure and ability to absorb punishment, but his lack of head movement, footwork, and defensive awareness have led to knockout losses in the past. Wellmaker’s precise, powerful striking is likely to capitalize on these openings, especially early in the fight when Moutinho tends to get hit the most. While Moutinho has strung together five stoppage wins on the regional circuit since leaving the UFC, he has not faced anyone with Wellmaker’s combination of athleticism and finishing ability.
Additionally, Wellmaker will be fighting in front of a home crowd, adding extra motivation to deliver another highlight-reel finish. If he stays composed and picks his shots, Wellmaker’s natural power and technical improvements should be enough to hand Moutinho another stoppage loss and keep his undefeated record intact.
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Why Kris Moutinho Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Johnny Campbell – KO/TKO R2
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 9 (6 KO/TKO/3 SUB)
Kris Moutinho’s path to victory over Malcolm Wellmaker at UFC Atlanta centers on his relentless pressure and proven durability. Since leaving the UFC in 2022, Moutinho has put together five straight stoppage wins, showcasing improved finishing instincts and the ability to overwhelm opponents with volume and pace.
Moutinho’s all-action style, which earned him a Fight of the Night bonus in his UFC debut against Sean O’Malley, is tailor-made to drag opponents into deep waters and test their composure under fire. Against Wellmaker, who has yet to be tested beyond the first round in the UFC, Moutinho’s experience in longer, grueling fights could be a deciding factor. If he can weather Wellmaker’s early power and avoid the kind of precise counters that felled Cameron Saaiman, Moutinho’s pressure and output may force Wellmaker to fight at an uncomfortable pace.
Additionally, Moutinho’s grappling, bolstered by a purple belt in jiu-jitsu and recent submission victories, gives him more paths to victory if the fight hits the mat. With his back against the wall and a point to prove in his UFC return, expect Moutinho to push the pace, absorb early adversity, and potentially break Wellmaker late for a career-defining win.
Final Malcolm Wellmaker-Kris Moutinho Prediction & Pick
Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Kris Moutinho at UFC Atlanta is a matchup that promises fireworks for the home crowd. Wellmaker, undefeated at 9-0, has built his reputation on devastating first-round knockouts, including a highlight-reel finish of Cameron Saaiman in his UFC debut that earned him a Performance of the Night bonus. He’s openly targeting a statement win over Moutinho, aiming to do what Sean O’Malley couldn’t, put Moutinho out cold.
Moutinho, meanwhile, returns to the UFC on a five-fight finishing streak after a tough initial run in the promotion, where he became a cult favorite for his incredible toughness against O’Malley. While he’s shown improved finishing instincts on the regional circuit, questions remain about his defensive liabilities and how he’ll handle Wellmaker’s early power surge.
If Wellmaker can land clean early, his precision and knockout power could be too much for Moutinho’s notoriously hittable defense. However, if Moutinho weathers the storm, his relentless pressure and experience in grueling fights could test Wellmaker’s cardio and composure in later rounds. Expect a fast-paced, dramatic back-and-forth battle until Wellmaker lands the one-hitter quitter and puts Moutinho away early.
Final Malcolm Wellmaker-Kris Moutinho Prediction & Pick: Malcolm Wellmaker (-1800), Under 1.5 Rounds (-175)
