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UFC 319: Dricus Du Plessis versus Khamzat Chimaev continues the prelims with a fight between Lerone Murphy and Aaron Pico in the featherweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Murphy-Pico prediction and pick.
Aaron Pico (13-4) comes into his UFC debut this weekend off impressive performances in Bellator. He secured a first-round TKO win over Henry Corrales in February 2024 and a one-round TKO against Pedro Carvalho in September 2023. Pico’s sharp striking and wrestling make him a serious threat against undefeated Lerone Murphy at UFC 319.
Lerone Murphy (16-0-1) comes into this weekend’s matchup on a strong upswing with three consecutive unanimous decision wins over Josh Emmett in April 2025, Dan Ige in October 2024, and Edson Barboza in May 2024. Murphy’s flawless record and technical prowess make him a formidable opponent for Aaron Pico at UFC 319.
Here are the UFC 319 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 319 odds: Lerone Murphy-Aaron Pico odds
Lerone Murphy: +150
Aaron Pico: -180
Over 2.5 rounds: -215
Under 2.5 rounds: +165
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Why Lerone Murphy will win
- Last Fight: (W) Jonathan Ramsay – KO/TKO R1
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 7 (4 KO/TKO/3 SUB)
Lerone Murphy has the tools and experience to beat Aaron Pico at UFC 319. The key strength is his composure and technical striking; he is a highly polished, patient fighter who avoids unnecessary risks. This measured approach will frustrate Pico’s aggressive style and mitigate the damage from Pico’s power shots.
Murphy's undefeated record and UFC experience give him an edge in handling high-pressure fights. He is known for his durability and sharp counter-striking, which will punish Pico whenever he tries to press forward recklessly. By keeping the fight standing, he can exploit Pico’s less refined defense and make him pay for any mistakes.
Furthermore, Murphy’s fight IQ and pacing will be crucial. He is comfortable going the distance and knows how to control the tempo, potentially wearing down Pico’s explosive but sometimes inconsistent bursts of offense. Murphy’s ability to avoid prolonged grappling exchanges also plays to his advantage, as Pico’s wrestling, while dangerous, might drain his energy without guaranteeing dominant control.
Murphy's balance of technical striking, patience, and endurance create a winning formula against Pico’s aggression. His ability to capitalize on openings while staying defensively solid makes him the favorite to outlast and outsmart Pico in this pivotal UFC 319 bout.
Why Aaron Pico will win
- Last Fight: (W) Rustem Kudaybergenov – DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 9 (7 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Aaron Pico is poised to beat Lerone Murphy at UFC 319 thanks to his explosive striking and dynamic pace. Pico’s recent first-round TKO wins demonstrate his ability to finish fights quickly, putting immense pressure on his opponents from the outset. This aggressive approach could overwhelm Murphy, who typically relies on controlling the pace over three rounds.
Additionally, Pico's wrestling background gives him a distinct advantage in transitions and clinch situations. His ability to blend powerful striking with effective takedown attempts makes him unpredictable, forcing Murphy to defend on multiple fronts. If Pico successfully implements his wrestling, he can control where the fight takes place and avoid Murphy’s consistent grappling control.
Murphy’s strength lies in his sharp striking and grappling consistency, but Pico’s relentless forward pressure and knockout power can disrupt that rhythm. Pico’s youth and hunger to prove himself add an extra layer of motivation, which is crucial in high-stakes matchups. At UFC 319, Pico’s combination of athleticism, power, and aggression creates a formula that can dismantle Murphy’s steady but less explosive style.
Pico’s finishing ability, wrestling versatility, and high-intensity style give him the edge to outpace and outstrike Murphy, making him the favorite to come out on top in this weekend’s showdown.
Final Lerone Murphy-Aaron Pico prediction & pick
Aaron Pico enters UFC 319 as a slight favorite with his explosive wrestling and powerful striking. His dynamic pace and ability to finish fights early make him a formidable threat. Pico’s aggression and wrestling pedigree can disrupt Lerone Murphy’s composed, technical striking style, potentially forcing the fight to the ground where Pico can control.
However, Lerone Murphy’s undefeated record and measured approach should not be underestimated. Murphy’s patient style, sharp counter-striking, and durability give him the tools to neutralize Pico’s power and avoid risky exchanges. His ability to maintain distance and control the tempo may frustrate Pico’s offense and force a decision scenario.
The bout shapes up as a clash of styles: Pico’s aggression and explosive offense against Murphy’s solid defense and fight IQ. While Pico has the edge in finishing ability, Murphy’s experience and consistent technique make him a tough puzzle to solve.
Ultimately, Pico’s wrestling and knockout power give him a slight edge to claim victory, but Murphy’s resilience and precision make it a close and competitive fight at UFC 319.
Final Lerone Murphy-Aaron Pico Prediction & Pick: Aaron Pico (-180), Over 2.5 Rounds (-215)
