The NFL has a triple-header on Christmas Day this year, kicking off with an NFC East rivalry as the Dallas Cowboys visit the Washington Commanders. It is time to continue our NFL odds series with a Cowboys-Commanders prediction and pick.
The Cowboys are 6-8-1 on the season. They were still in a position to make the playoffs, as the team was 6-5-1 after a win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Since then, they have lost three straight games, leading to the Cowboys' elimination from the playoff chase. In the process of losing three in a row, the defense has been horrible, giving up 34 or more points in each game.
Meanwhile, it has been a highly disappointing season for the Commanders. They opened the season 3-2 until they lost eight in a row. The Commanders broke their losing streak against the Giants, but then would fall 29-18 to the Eagles in a game that saw a brawl break out.
This is the second meeting between the Cowboys and Commanders this year. Dallas took the 44-22 victory in the first meeting back in October.
NFL betting odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Cowboys vs. Commanders Odds
Cowboys: -7 (-110)
Commanders: +7 (-110)
Over: 50.5 (-115)
Under: 50.5 (-105)
Cowboys vs. Commanders Key Injuries
Cowboys- LB DeMarvion Overton (Concussion- Questionable), OT Tyler Guyton (Ankle- Out), DT Quinnen Williams (Neck- Questionable), WR Ryan Flournoy (Knee- Questionable), G Tyler Booker (Ankle- Questionable), S Donovan Wilson (Hip- Questionable), WR KaVontae Turpin (Shoulder-Questionable), RB Javonte Williams (Neck- Questionable)
Commanders- QB Jayden Daniels (Elbow- Out), RG Sam Cosmi (Concussion-Out), QB Marcus Mariota (Right Hand/Quad- Questionable), DT Daron Payne (Back- Questionable), OT Laremy Tunsil (Oblique- Questionable), WR Jaylin Lane (Ankle-Doubtful), DT Jer'Zhan Newton (Head- Questionable)
Cowboys vs. Commanders Betting Trends
– The Cowboys are 7-8 against the spread and 3-4 ATS on the road this season.
– The Commanders are 5-10 against the spread, while also going 3-4 against the spread at home this year.
– As a favorite this season, the Cowboys are just 2-5 against the spread. They have also lost outright four times.
– As an underdog, the Commanders are 3-9 against the spread.
– The over has hit in ten Cowboys games this year, and in four of the last six games.
– The under has hit in just six games for the Commanders this year. The under has been the right side just once in the last four games.
Keys to Cowboys vs. Commanders Matchup
The key to the Cowboys getting the win in this game is going to be getting Dak Prescott going. The team is fifth in the NFL in points per game and second in yards per game. They are also 17th in rushing yards per game and first in the passing game. Prescott has been great this season. He is second in the NFL with 4,175 yards, while also third in the league in passing touchdowns with 28. He has thrown ten interceptions. Prescott has also scored twice on the ground this year. The quarterback is playing well as of late, passing for over 250 yards in six of his last seven games. Last time against the Commanders, he threw for 264 yards and three touchdowns.
The Commanders have not been good on defense this year. They are 27th in opponent points per game and 30th in yards against. Further, they are 20th against the run and 32nd against the pass. When the Cowboys quarterback has struggled this year and turned over the ball, it is because there was pressure on him. Washington is 16th in the NFL in sack rate this year. Von Miller needs to get pressure on Prescott, as he leads the team in sacks this year with seven and also has the most quarterback pressures.
Meanwhile, the Commanders need to get the ground game going and control the clock through that. The team is 24th in points per game while sitting 20th in yards per game. They are 24th in the pass, but fourth in the run. With Jayden Daniels out, plus Marcus Mariota beat up, Washington needs to focus on the ground game. Jacory Croskey-Merritt has run for 671 yards with six scores this year, while Chris Rodriguez has run for 435 yards and five scores.
The Cowboys are one of the worst defensive units in the league. They are 31st in opponent points per game and 30th in opponent yards per game. They are 32nd against the pass and 20th against the run. Donovan Ezeiruaku has been solid against the run this year. He has just 38 total tackles with seven tackles for a loss. He will need to be a factor in this game as well for the Boys to take the win.
Cowboys vs. Commanders Prediction and Pick
One major issue could be who starts at quarterback for the Commanders. With Daniels out, and Mariota questionable, it will be Josh Johnson under center if Mariota cannot go. That is going to allow the Cowboys to stack the box and stop the run game for the Commanders. The offense for the Commanders has not been good as of late. While they put up 29 points in the one recent win, they have scored 18 or fewer points in five of their last eight games. That includes being shut out by the Vikings. Meanwhile, the Cowbouys have scored 17 or more points in all but one game this year. The Commanders are not going to be able to score enough to keep up in this one, as the Cowboys take the easy win.
Final Cowboys vs. Commanders Prediction and Pick: Cowboys -7 (-110) and Under 50.5 (-105)
