UFC Rio: Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot kicks off the prelims with a fight between Luan Lacerda and Saimon Oliveira in the bantamweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Lacerda-Oliveira prediction and pick.
Daniel Lacerda (12-3) sits 0-2 in the UFC after consecutive losses. He dropped a decision to Cody Stamann at UFC 283 in January 2023, then suffered a second-round TKO loss to Da'Mon Blackshear via ground-and-pound in June 2023. The Nova União fighter returns after over two years away as he comes into his fight this weekend against Saimon Oliveira.
Saimon Oliveira (18-6) enters UFC Rio on a three-fight losing streak, suffering recent knockout defeats to David Martinez and Daniel Marcos, plus a decision loss to Tony Gravely. Known for his submission prowess, Oliveira seeks redemption as he comes into his fight this weekend against Luan Lacerda.
Here are the UFC Rio Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Rio odds: Luan Lacerda-Saimon Oliveira odds
Luan Lacerda: -250
Saimon Oliveira: +205
Over 1.5 rounds: -145
Under 1.5 rounds: +114
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Why Luan Lacerda will win
- Last Fight: (L) Da’Mon Blackshear – KO/TKO 2
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 10 (10 SUB)
Lacerda holds a measurable edge over Oliveira in both significant strikes landed per minute and overall accuracy. This means that he can dictate the pace of the fight, rewarding him whenever exchanges break out in the center of the octagon.
Oliveira's recent struggles with his striking defense have left him open to counters and pressure fighting. Lacerda has shown an ability to keep up aggression and use his versatile kicking game to frustrate opponents, potentially exploiting Oliveira’s tendency to absorb damage.
Lacerda also holds a clear advantage with his defensive grappling, boasting a superior takedown defense at 75% compared to Oliveira's 38%. This stat suggests Oliveira will have difficulty bringing the fight to the mat, where he’s usually most dangerous.
With Oliveira on a three-fight losing streak and Lacerda looking sharp outside the UFC, momentum leans towards Lacerda finding success with volume and pressure. As both fighters battle for their UFC futures, Lacerda’s well-rounded skillset and sharper offense should see him claim victory at UFC Rio this Saturday.
Why Saimon Oliveira will win
- Last Fight: (L) David Martinez – KO/TKO R1
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 16 (5 KO/TKO/11 SUB)
Oliveira’s main path to victory is his exceptional grappling and aggressive submission approach, which has earned him more than half of his career wins by tapout. Lacerda’s past losses have often come against crafty grapplers, and Oliveira could exploit those openings if the fight hits the mat.
Oliveira possesses a solid gas tank, with proven ability to push the pace in later rounds and handle adversity. Should Lacerda’s initial offense fail to put him away early, Oliveira is well-suited to rally back and take control as the bout progresses.
Oliveira’s calf kicks and pressure style may frustrate Lacerda, disrupting his rhythm and lowering his striking volume. His experience against UFC-level competition gives him an edge in close exchanges and the composure needed to capitalize on mistakes.
With heightened motivation to snap a losing streak and prove his submission threat, Oliveira can force Lacerda into grappling situations and make this a grinding battle. If he can establish his top game and control position, Oliveira stands a strong chance of earning the win at UFC Rio on Saturday.
Final Luan Lacerda-Saimon Oliveira prediction & pick
This fight opens as a classic clash between two winless UFC veterans desperately needing a victory to remain on the roster. Lacerda will look to impose his aggressive, volume-heavy striking approach early, using his three-inch height advantage and superior output to pressure Oliveira.
Oliveira's path to victory relies heavily on his grappling prowess, particularly his dangerous guillotine choke that has secured multiple finishes throughout his career. However, his tendency to rush forward recklessly and absorb unnecessary damage could prove costly against Lacerda's measured counter-striking.
The fight will likely be determined by whether Oliveira can successfully close the distance and drag Lacerda into grappling exchanges where his submission threats are most dangerous. Lacerda's superior takedown defense at 75% compared to Oliveira's 38% suggests he can keep the fight standing where his striking volume gives him clear advantages.
Expect Lacerda to control the early rounds with consistent pressure and cleaner striking combinations while avoiding Oliveira's desperate takedown attempts. As the fight progresses, Oliveira's cardio and submission threats may become factors, but his recent struggles with durability and defensive striking make him vulnerable to accumulating damage.
Ultimately, Lacerda wins by unanimous decision, using his superior striking output and defensive grappling to outwork Oliveira over three rounds.
Final Luan Lacerda-Saimon Oliveira Prediction & Pick: Luan Lacerda (-250), Over 1.5 Rounds (-145)
