Braves vs Mets prediction, odds, pick

It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Braves-Mets prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Braves Mets.

The Atlanta Braves are in real trouble. They continue to lose games. They continue to lose ground in the National League wild card race. They're still likely to make the playoffs, but the big concern is that they have fallen back to the pack and have lost the leverage they previously had. The Braves had been well ahead of the second and third National League wild card teams. Now that gap is much smaller, meaning that if the Braves have another bad two-week stretch, they will fall to the third wild card spot and will be in real danger of being passed in the standings. They are at risk of missing the postseason, and the threat is real.

Atlanta, which had already lost Ronald Acuna and Spencer Strider to injury, has watched Ozzie Albies get hurt, further eroding a lineup which has been underperforming to begin with. The New York Mets just won two straight games at the New York Yankees to gain more ground on the skidding Braves, who lost two home games versus the Cincinnati Reds. It's getting very uncomfortable for the Braves, which is why this series in Queens against the Mets is so important for both sides. The Mets have a real chance to boost their postseason odds, and the Braves have a chance to stabilize their season. If Atlanta fails, however, it's going to get very unsettled in Atlanta.

Braves-Mets Projected Starters

Chris Sale vs. Luis Severino

Chris Sale (13-3) has a 2.70 ERA. Sale isn't just an elite pitcher; one of the most notable aspects about his portfolio in 2024 is how consistent he is regardless of location. Plenty of pitchers are either a lot better at home or on the road. If they pitch in a pitchers' park, their road numbers are often much worse. If they pitch in a hitter-friendly park, their road numbers are often a lot better than their home numbers. With Sale, what you see is what you get at home or on the road. His home ERA and road ERA are virtually the same, 2.72 compared to 2.68. When Sale takes the mound this year, he regularly delivers for the Braves. He was scheduled to pitch Game 2 of a Wednesday doubleheader versus the Cincinnati Reds, but that game was rained out.

Last Start: Sunday, July 14 versus the San Diego Padres: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 HR, 2 BB, 4 K

2024 Road Splits: 9 starts, 53 2/3 IP, 40 H, 16 R, 3 HR, 16 BB, 73 K

Luis Severino (7-3) has a 3.58 ERA. He has been a very solid pitcher for the Mets' staff, not a superstar but certainly a guy who will eat innings, stay out of the big inning, and give New York a decent chance to win. Severino has had periods in his career which have been marked by volatility and inconsistency, but this season, Severino has made progress in terms of having less variance between his very best and very worst starts. The Mets hope they will continue to get a steady stream of good performances from this member of their starting rotation. That will be important in the pursuit of a playoff berth.

Last Start: Saturday, July 20 versus the Miami Marlins: 6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 3 BB, 7 K

2024 Home Splits: 10 starts, 60 2/3 IP, 49 H, 24 R, 6 HR, 23 BB, 42 K

Here are the Braves-Mets MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.