A month ago, there was a buzz around the Seattle Mariners as the likable bunch was cruising along in a non-competitive AL West division. The Mariners won their 17th game in the last 22 on June 18, 11 of those wins against divisional opponents. They held a 10-game lead in the AL West, the largest divisional lead at the time.
Since then, Seattle is 9-17 and is now tied with the Houston Astros for first place. Houston took two of three in Seattle this past weekend, grabbing sole possession of first place for the first time this season after a win on Saturday. The two sides play three more games against each other during the final week of the regular season.
During that 9-17 stretch, the Mariners were held to three or fewer runs in 16 of 26 games, recording a 3-13 record in those games. A recent five-game losing streak saw Seattle average two runs per game, one in which they scored five runs. If the Mariners want to stay in the race for the AL West crown and the playoffs in general, they need to improve their offense.
The Tampa Bay Rays might offer help to the Mariners before the July 30 MLB trade deadline. MLB insider Jon Morosi reported last week that the Rays and Mariners might engage in trade talks “in the coming days” as the franchises have done business before. Morosi mentioned Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes and Yandy Diaz as possible trade pieces if the Rays want to shop their better players.
The Mariners were linked to Arozarena in the offseason but no serious trade talks occurred with the Rays. Maybe it's time Seattle picked up the phone and offered something for the 2023 All-Star.
Measuring Randy Arozarena's trade value
Arozarena's track record makes his trade value tricky to calculate. He won American League Rookie of the Year in 2021 following a breakout in the 2020 postseason. He also earned an All-Star nod in 2023, his third full MLB season.
While the past accolades will serve as a benchmark for the Rays' asking price, his performance this season likely drove down his price from last offseason. It's hard to imagine a team giving up one of its top two prospects for Arozarena given his struggles this year and he also turns 30 before next season.
However, he is under team control through 2026. Tampa can use that as leverage to grab a mid-level prospect and a top-end player or push for a top-three prospect depending on the team's farm system.
The Mariners have one of the best prospect pools in the sport, boasting six top 100 prospects according to MLB Pipeline. They should be open to dealing a few of those prospects to get established major-league talent before the MLB trade deadline.
Mariners receive: Randy Arozarena (OF)
Rays receive: Lazaro Montes (OF, SEA #4, MLB #51), Michael Morales (RHP, SEA #11)
Why the Mariners do it
To put things bluntly, the Mariners offense is awful. It hasn’t only been the last month, but virtually the entire 2024 season that Seattle's lineup has been inconsistent and sometimes non-existent. Being unable to score is not a recipe for success in any sport, let alone an unforgiving one like baseball.
The Mariners have the worst team batting average in Major League Baseball and the third-worst OPS. Only the Chicago White Sox and Miami Marlins, owners of the worst record in their respective league, scored fewer runs than the Seattle entering Monday's action.
With those numbers, it should be almost impossible for the Mariners to be in the playoff chase. Seattle's pitching staff is out of this world this season and is carrying the franchise like never before. You have to score runs to win though and Seattle's measly 3.83 runs per game won't cut it in the dog days of summer.
The Mariners can’t expect their starters to throw a quality outing every night, so the priority at the trade deadline is clear. They need to add multiple bats to a lineup desperate for support. After placing 2022 All-Star Ty France on waivers over the weekend, Seattle's next move should be to trade for an established bat.
Randy Arozarena's slash numbers are well below his career average this season, but the 29-year-old is starting to click. He hit nearly .300 over his last 30 games and truly began his revival before that with June being the catalyst. He hit .291 in June with an OPS just below .900.
Arozarena reached base in 27 of his last 29 games and picked up the second half with a monster series against the New York Yankees over the weekend. He launched three home runs and added two doubles in 13 at-bats. He scored three times and drove in four runs as the Rays took two of the first three games.
The Mariners can shift Luke Raley to first base and place Arozarena in left field. He plays above-average defense out there and would undoubtedly add pop and charisma to Seattle's lineup. Arozarena would fit in well in Seattle.
Why the Rays do it
Several factors might hold the Rays back from trading Randy Arozarena. Although Tampa is outside the American League playoff picture as of Monday, its 50-48 record keeps the Rays in contention. They're currently 4 1/2 games behind the Kansas City Royals for the final playoff spot in the AL, with the Mariners and Boston Red Sox also ahead of the Rays.
Multiple series wins this week might push Tampa past Seattle and Boston, making it less likely the Rays would sell. Arozarena's contract situation also plays a factor as he won’t become a free agent until after the 2026 season. His salary will increase incrementally though with numbers that the Rays don't and won't give to one player.
Arozarena is still owed over $3 million in 2024 and his salary next season is expected to rise above the $8.1 million he's making this season. He doubled his salary from 2023 to this year, but the same jump probably won’t happen unless he gets traded or continues to rake at a near 1.000 OPS clip.
If Tampa doesn’t gain any ground in the playoff picture by next week, it would be smart business to at least see the type of return Arozarena would net. The Mariners' proposed package of their No. 4 prospect Lazaro Montes and No. 11 prospect Michael Morales might be enough to intrigue the Rays.
Montes signed with the Mariners as an international prospect in 2022 and immediately started raking in the minor leagues, collecting 28 extra-base hits in 55 games in the Dominican Summer League. He then posted a 1.000 OPS with 13 home runs and 19 doubles in 70 games in 2023 across two levels.
Montes continues to show off his raw power this year and earned his highest promotion yet to High-A Everett in late June. Although he's struggled in 17 games since promotion, he put up monster numbers in the California League earlier this year and is well on pace to play 100 games in a single season for the first time in his professional career.
Seattle took Morales out of high school in the third round of the 2021 draft. Now 21, he's improved year over year, flourishing in High-A this spring before a call-up to Double-A on the last day of June. His High-A stats include a 9-1 record and a 2.36 ERA in 15 starts, while he struck out 80 batters with 25 walks. Similar to Montes, he's gotten off on the wrong foot upon his promotion, allowing 13 earned runs in three starts with Double-A Arkansas.
The Rays have prided themselves on developing pitchers and Morales is a fascinating project. He's shown plus potential on several pitches and seems to have finally found his groove as a pro. A full year in Tampa's system could vault Morales to the big leagues before the end of the 2025 MLB season.
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