The Montreal Canadiens locked up their top defenseman of the future, Kaiden Guhle, on a six-year contract extension on Wednesday. Guhle will receive $5.5 million per year, starting in 2025-26. Guhle remains on his entry-level deal for one more year, but the Canadiens felt it was necessary to sign him to an extension once he became eligible on July 1st. The 22-year-old looks poised to take over the No. 1 defense spot, possibly as early as next season. Mike Matheson and David Savard are the veteran leaders on the blueline, but both players could receive a trade before their contracts end.
The Canadiens have 11 defensemen capable of suiting up for the Canadiens this season, which is why it was integral to get Guhle's contract finished. They also signed Arber Xhekaj and Justin Barron to extensions on July 30th. It was a successful two days for the Canadiens, and their rebuild is beginning to look better than ever.
The Canadiens could have the best defense depth in the NHL. They have a defense core of Guhle, Matheson, Savard, Xhekaj, Barron, Jayden Struble, and Chris Wideman heading into this season. However, the depth of their prospect pool makes them one of the best. The Canadiens have four defensemen in the minors that could challenge for a roster spot. Lane Hutson was one of the top defenders in college hockey last year and didn't look out of place in two games with the Canadiens after signing. Logan Mailloux was an All-Star in his first season in the AHL, and David Reinbacher looked dominant in his brief run with Laval after coming over from Europe. Adam Engstrom is also a candidate to get playing time with the Canadiens.
Kaiden Guhle creates a benchmark
Kent Hughes is an intelligent general manager, thanks to his start in the NHL as an agent. Hughes represented stars like Patrice Bergeron, Kris Letang, Darnell Nurse, and Alexis Lafreniere. He realizes how agents think in contract negotiations. Therefore, Hughes attempts to create benchmarks within his position groups. He saw it happen with his client Bergeron in Boston, where no other players on the Bruins' roster took more money during his time as an agent. It was why the Bruins were so successful over the last decade and a blueprint Hughes is trying to replicate.
Hughes did it with his forwards, where captain Nick Suzuki makes $7.875 million annually. Cole Caufield makes $25,000 less than that, and Juraj Slafkovsky recently signed a deal where he'll make $7.6 million. It's unlikely that a forward will make more annually than Suzuki before his contract expires in 2030. Guhle projects to be the Habs' No. 1 defenseman, so a $5.5 million benchmark may set the Canadiens up nicely for future contracts. The Canadiens have an elite group of prospects, but none may grow to big enough stardom to justify making more than Guhle. If Reinbacher becomes a superstar by the time his entry-level deal ends, Hughes will have to decide to break the benchmark.
Canadiens get average value with Guhle
Kaiden Guhle's advanced numbers according to PuckPedia are 44.90 Corsi and 45.60 Dangerous Fenwick For %. Corsi is a ratio of shot attempts for and against, while Dangerous Fenwick is a weighted shot metric for shot distance and location, two integral analytics for defensemen. There are three other defensemen with numbers close to Guhle's and one is ironically on the Canadiens. Matheson has similar advanced numbers but contributed 40 more points than Guhle last season. He also makes $600,000 less annually than Guhle's contract will pay him.
Alex Vlasic of the Chicago Blackhawks is the closest comparable, as he is near Guhle in age. Vlasic's new contract will pay him $4.6 million annually, and he also had fewer points than Guhle last season with more games played. If looking at Vlasic's contract, Guhle's looks like tremendous value. The third defenseman is ironically former Canadien Ben Chiarot. Chiarot made $750,000 less last season but had fewer points than Guhle. The Canadiens opted to trade Chiarot on an expiring contract in 2022, possibly due to the upcoming debut of Guhle.
The Canadiens view Guhle as a developing player. His numbers improved last season from his rookie year, and Hughes hopes they will continue to trend that way. If Guhle continues growing as a player, this contract could look like a steal in two years. It's also worth remembering that the salary cap should rise in the coming years, making Guhle one of the best bargains if he becomes a No. 1 defenseman.
It's a good contract for Guhle, but you have to wonder if he may have been better off waiting until next offseason with another productive season completed.
Canadiens Grade: A-
Kaiden Guhle's Grade: B
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