The atmosphere will be electric at Crypto.com Arena on Tuesday for the 2023 NBA In-Season Tournament quarterfinals clash between the Los Angeles Lakers (12-9) and Phoenix Suns (12-8). After being deprived of a LeBron James-vs.-Kevin Durant matchup for nearly six years, we'll be getting our third of the fall.

The Lakers thoroughly dominated West Group A, going 4-0 with a league-best +74 point differential. The Suns won three of four group-stage games and earned a wild card spot in the Knockout Round. Phoenix is 7-3 on the road and 2-5 vs. teams above .500. The Lakers are 8-2 at Crypto at 4-8 against teams with winning records.

Both teams are in strong form. The Lakers have won nine of their last 13 games, the Suns eight of 10.

Los Angeles won both prior meetings by eight total points, though neither featured Devin Booker, who'll be in the lineup on Tuesday. (Eric Gordon is questionable). LeBron James is listed as questionable, as usual, but he's expected to play. With Rui Hachimura set to return, the Lakers will have 13 players available for the first time this season.

The Lakers haven't hidden their desire to advance to Vegas and win the $500,000.

“Obviously, there is a lot riding on it for the In-Season tourney,” Darvin Ham said at Lakers practice on Monday about the quarterfinal. “I’m actually super, duper excited to coach it. I’m always trying to have fun out there. But definitely, with it being the In-Season Tournament, it adds a little more juice to it.”

 

For whatever reason, the Lakers have played their best basketball in the tournament, though the opposition has been relatively weak. The knockout stage, beginning with KD and Book, offers Ham's squad a useful barometer — a high-stakes environment against quality competition — around the season's quarter-pole.

“It’s not your regular run-of-the-mill game,” noted Ham. “Obviously, it’ll be a high-level game, it’s going to be a high-level game even without the extras of the In-Season Tournament just because of the matchup. Adding the In-Season Tournament puts a lot more fire on it, it’s something at stake. So, when you play like that, it’s as close as you can get at this point of the year to the playoffs.”

Here are three bold predictions for Lakers vs. Suns.

3. Jarred Vanderbilt will play 30+ minutes

In the absence of Vanderbilt — their longest, and best, perimeter defender — the Lakers have resorted to a combination of Reddish, Hachimura, and Christian Wood on KD. Durant came impressively close to beating the Lakers by himself way back on Oct. 26, until fatigue set in. He finished with 39 points on 14-for-28 shooting. He went for 38 on Nov. 10.

Vando made his season debut on Saturday, playing 13 minutes off the bench. His mere presence was impactful.

“I saw a lot of length out there for us today, and that's great,” LeBron said postgame.

Ham indicated Monday that the Lakers will gradually ramp up Vanderbilt's workload.

“Yeah, due to us getting whole and us having our depth more intact, we don't have to rush him along. We can definitely be steady with where his minutes are and slowly increasing them.”

If he proves effective, I could see Ham expediting that process on Tuesday. (I don't expect Vanderbilt to be re-inserted into the starting lineup. Taurean Prince will likely open the game on KD.)

Meanwhile, Cam Reddish and Max Christie will share Booker duties. Whoever fares the best will get the nod in crunchtime. The Suns' offense has thrived with Booker assuming lead play-maker duties (8.4 assists per game): Frank Vogel's group boasts a 123.3 offensive rating — equivalent to second-best in basketball — with Booker on the floor over the past nine outings. (Their defense has improved, too.)

2. 3-point shooting will determine the outcome

The Lakers are, statistically, the worst outside-shooting team in basketball. They rank 29th in percentage and 30th in 3-pointers per game. The Suns' output has been modest sans Booker and Bradley Beal, but they're fifth in percentage. The Lakers surrender the fifth-most triples per game, while the Suns give up the fifth-fewest.

The last time the Lakers faced a “contender”, on Nov. 27, the Philadelphia 76ers rode red-hot shooting to a 44-point blowout. The Lakers have been plagued by slow starts all season, often due to early shooting discrepancies. If the Suns go scorched earth off the jump, things could get out of hand in DTLA.

1. The Suns (+1.5) will advance to Las Vegas

Jusuf Nurkic has been playing excellent basketball as of late and will fare better on Anthony Davis than in meetings past. Ham is still juggling lineups. Los Angeles simply hasn't held its own against healthy top competition. Point-of-attack defense has been an Achilles heel. Booker's return will be the difference; he'll feast, and the Suns will advance to Vegas.

The Lakers will have to settle for $50,000 cash prizes and a ho-hum home game against the Sacramento Kings on Friday.