With the NCAA Tournament bracket officially released, every team believes they can win six straight games and finish as the NCAA Champion. But the field of 68 teams will quickly dwindle as the dreams of hopeful teams die with the final buzzer.
And despite successful regular seasons, many teams face a much tougher path than they would have expected in the NCAA Tournament. Here are three high seeds with the most difficult roads to the Final Four.
Kentucky
Despite a recent offensive flourish, Kentucky has just a 5.4% chance of reaching the Final Four according to Bart Torvik — the worst of any top-four seed and 18th overall. Much of this comes down to the Wildcat's weak defense. John Calipari's team is 108th in defensive efficiency according to KenPom and just gave up 97 points to Texas A&M in the SEC Tournament.
The Wildcats should not have too much trouble getting through the opening weekend, as the four-team pod of Oakland, Texas Tech, and NC State is arguably the easiest of any three-seed. But after that, potential opponents include Marquette, Florida, and Houston. Marquette can expose Kentucky's defensive struggles while Florida already beat the Wildcats this year.
Expect a modest run from Kentucky this year but no Final Four appearance.
San Diego State
The Aztecs are in a similar position to last year as the five-seed in the same region as the number-one overall seed but don't expect a repeat of last year's run. Should SDSU get past UAB, Jaedon Ledee, the leading scorer in the Mountain West at 21.1 PPG, and the Aztecs will have to go up against one of the nation's elite defenders in big man Johni Broome. Broome finished second in the SEC with a defensive box plus-minus of 4.8 while blocking 2.3 shots per contest. With an inconsistent supporting cast, even an okay game from Ledee could mean an early exit for Brian Dutcher's team.
Make it to the Second Weekend, and San Diego State is almost guaranteed a matchup with UConn. Unlike last year's Alabama team which was young and relied too much on outside shots, this UConn squad is as balanced and dangerous as last year. The Huskies are also playing their best ball of the year right now, unlike the Aztecs which lost six of its last seven Quad I games heading into the NCAA Tournament.
Despite a similar squad built around physical strength, veteran leadership, and elite defense, SDSU is not a Final Four contender this year.
Marquette
Even with Tyler Kolek's likely return for the NCAA Tournament, Marquette's Final Four path is the toughest of all the number-two seeds. Right out of the gate, Marquette has a tough matchup against Western Kentucky. WKU has the best odds of any 14, 15, or 16-seed to win its First Round matchup at 12.5% (per Evan Miya).
Get past the Hilltoppers and the Golden Eagles will have a difficult Second Round fixture against Florida or Colorado/Boise State. All three teams are excellent at rebounding — an area where Marquette struggles. Shaka Smart's team is 279th in offensive rebounding rate and 273rd in defensive rebounding % as five of its six worst defensive rebounding performances have resulted in defeats. Florida is seventh in offensive rebounding while Colorado and BSU are top-15 defensive rebounding squads.
Marquette's struggles against physical teams will make it difficult to reach the second weekend, and another tough team in Houston will stand in the Golden Eagles' way.
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