UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 is heating up from Manchester, England as we’re set to bring you another betting prediction and pick for this next bout in the Featherweight (145) Division. London, England’s hometown fighter Nathaniel Wood will take on Houston’s own Daniel Pineda in an exciting scrap. Check out our UFC odds series for our Wood-Pineda prediction and pick.
Nathaniel Wood (19-6) has gone 7-3 since joining the UFC back in 2018. Following a number of recent cancellations, Wood was able to string together three consecutive wins en route to becoming a serious contender within the division. He took a tough loss in his last bout against Muhammad Naimov and will be looking to get back on track as the heavy favorite here. Wood stands 5’6″ with a 69-inch reach.
Daniel Pineda (28-15) has gone 5-6-0-1 in the UFC since joining in 2012. Following a short stint fighting for PFL, he’s gone 2-2-0-1 since rejoining the UFC roster and lost his most recent decision unanimously to Alex Caceres. He’s hoping to notch the massive upset over the hometown favorite as he tries to propel himself into a big spot. Pineda stands 5’7″ with a 69-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 304 Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC 304 Odds: Nathaniel Wood-Daniel Pineda Odds
Nathaniel Wood: -410
Daniel Pineda: +310
Over 1.5 rounds: -160
Under 1.5 rounds: +130
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Why Nathaniel Wood Will Win
Nathaniel Wood comes into this fight following a tough decision loss to Muhammad Naimov. During that fight, Wood was unable to stun Naimov with his punches and his usual wrestling attack wasn’t enough to keep Naimov down on the mat. While his output remained consistent and he fought very technically, his shots weren’t enough to affect Naimov and keep him from marching forward. Wood had a tough time retreating and fighting off his back foot, so expect him to stand his ground in this one as he swings from the pocket.
Wood’s last loss could serve as a teaching moment as he needs to remain aggressive and not allow his opponent to gain momentum in the striking. Wood is a very capable wrestler and against a fighter like Daniel Pineda, he should be able to find a takedown or two and translate it into meaningful offense. Still, he doesn’t want to waste time in feeling his opponent out and risk falling behind on the scorecards. Look for Nathaniel Wood to be first in these exchanges as he tries to catch Pineda early.
Why Daniel Pineda Will Win
Daniel Pineda put forth a solid performance in his last fight against Alex Caceres, but he wasn’t quite able to gauge the distance and range against the much longer striker. Pineda will have a much closer matchup in terms of physical size against Wood and we could even see him emerge as the stronger guy during some of these exchanges in the clinch. With 19 of his 28 professional wins coming by way of submission, Daniel Pineda is no slouch on the ground and will welcome the wrestling attack from his opponent. Look for him to constantly be looking and chasing the submissions from bottom position.
Daniel Pineda is also a very skilled boxer and despite being outmatched technically by Wood, he tends to hit harder and has the greater finishing upside when breaking down his striking. Pineda is dubbed as a counter-puncher and if Wood overextends, he could find the opening he needs to land a knockout blow. We’ve seen Wood get sat-down by similar strikers, so expect Pineda to open aggressively as he tries to catch Wood sleeping.
Final Nathaniel Wood-Daniel Pineda Prediction & Pick
This will be a great fight between a technical striker and grappler in Nathaniel Wood facing a scrappy brawler like Daniel Pineda. With Nathaniel Wood favoring a wrestling approach, it’ll be interesting to see how the jiu jitsu of Daniel Pineda combats the takedown attempts. Don’t be surprised if we see Pineda crank a sneaky submission on a lazy takedown attempt from Wood.
Nathaniel Wood has performed well each time he’s fought on home soil and I’m expecting another well-balanced performance from him in this one. While Pineda may be the one landing the harder shots in the pocket, Nathaniel Wood’s wrestling will eventually be the difference as he takes this to a three-round decision. Still, look for Daniel Pineda to have his moments as Wood shakes off the would-be submission attempts. I favor the over here as both fighters are extremely tough to finish and both won’t be willing to give an inch in the striking.
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Final Nathaniel Wood-Daniel Pineda Prediction & Pick: Nathaniel Wood (-410); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-160)
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