Nick Lodolo and Shane Baz face off as the Cincinnati Reds face the Tampa Bay Rays. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Reds-Rays prediction and pick.
Reds-Rays Projected Starters
Nick Lodolo vs. Shane Baz
Nick Lodolo (8-3) with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP
Last Start: Lodolo went 6.1 innings giving up six hits, a walk, and a home run. He would surrender four runs but take the no-decision as the Reds lost to the Nationals.
2024 Road Splits: Lodolo has made six road starts, going 4-1 with a 2.84 ERA and a .173 opponent batting average.
Shane Baz (0-1) with a 3.95 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP
Last Start: Baz went 3.1 innings last start, giving up four hits and five walks. No runs would score as he took the no-decision in a win over the Yankees.
2024 Home Splits: Baz has made just one start at home, giving up three runs, but taking a no-decision in the game.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Reds-Rays Odds
Cincinnati Reds: -1.5 (+146)
Moneyline: -112
Tampa Bay Rays: +1.5 (-178)
Moneyline: -104
Over: 7.5 (+100)
Under: 7.5 (-122)
How to Watch Reds vs. Rays
Time: 6:50 PM ET/ 3:50 PM PT
TV: BSOH/BSSUN
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Reds Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Reds are 14th in the majors in runs scored, while sitting 28th in batting average, 22nd in on-base percentage, and 17th in slugging. Spencer Steer has been great for the Reds this year. He is hitting .241 on the year with a .331 on-base percentage. Steer has 15 home runs and 64 RBI while he has stolen 15 bases and scored 53 times. Also driving in runs is Jeimer Candelario. He is hitting .233 on the year with 16 home runs and 47 RBIs. Elly De La Cruz has been great on the base path. He is hitting .262 this year with a .353 on-base percentage. While he has hit 18 home runs and driven in 45 runs, the more impressive part is the 51 stolen bases and 70 runs scored. Meanwhile, Jonathan India leads the team in batting this year. He is hitting .271 on the year with a .374 on-base percentage.
Austin Slater has been driving in runs since the all-star break. While he is hitting just .227, he has four RBIs and three runs scored since the break. Jake Fraley has also been solid in the last week. He is hitting .357 since the break with a home run and four RBIs. He has also scored once. Rounding out the hottest bats is Elly De La Cruz. De La Cruz has hit .381 with a .458 on-base percentage. He has two doubles, a triple, and a home run with two RBIs. He has also stolen five bases and scored six times.
Only two members of the Reds have at-bats against Shane Baz. Jonathan Indian has one hit in two at-bats, with the hit being a home run. He also has two RBIs. Tyler Stephenson is two for two with a home run and two RBIs.
Why The Rays Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Rays are 27th in the majors in runs scored while sitting 23rd in batting average, 19th in on-base percentage, and 25th in slugging. Isaac Paredes leads the way this year. He is hitting. 248 on the year while getting on base at a .351 rate. He has 16 home runs, 51 RBIs, and has scored 38 times. Yandy Diaz is also having a great year. He is hitting .273 on the year with a .329 on-base percentage. He has eight home runs, 46 RBIs and 35 runs scored. Meanwhile, Brandon Lowe is hitting well this year. He is hitting .251 in his 55 games this year. He is also getting on base at a .346 rate with 12 home runs and 33 RBIS. Further, Lowe has scored 40 times this year.
Since the All-Break, Randy Arozarena has been great. He hit .381 with a .480 on-base percentage. He has three home runs and five RBIs plus has scored six times. The Rays will need to figure out how to replace that production though, as he was traded to the Mariners. Brandon Lowe is not hitting well but has been driving in runs. He is hitting just .111 in the last week but has two home runs and three RBIs. Further, he has scored twice. Jose Siri has been similar. He is hitting just .182 on the week, with two home runs and three RBIs. He has also scored twice.
Current members of the Rays have 30 career at-bats against Nick Lodolo. They have hit .500 against him. Yandy Diaz is five for seven with a home run and five RBIs. Further, Taylor Walls is three for six with a home run and three RBIs.
Final Reds-Rays Prediction & Pick
Not only do the Reds have the better pitcher going in this one, they have the better offense as well. They have been hitting better since the break too. The only concern is some fielding issues, but the Reds will be able to overcome them in this one.
Click here for more betting news and predictions
Final Reds-Rays Prediction & Pick: Reds ML (-112)
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