The Dallas Mavericks are once again facing skepticism as the 2025–26 NBA season approaches.ESPN’s Tim Bontemps is predicting that the team will miss the playoffs. That analysis comes despite Dallas adding rookie sensation Cooper Flagg.
Bontemps cited the Mavericks’ defensive struggles, inconsistent shooting, and uncertain roster chemistry as major red flags for a team. Overall, Bontempts notes, Dallas is also adjusting after trading franchise icon Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers last season.
“The defense has looked far from formidable,” Bontemps wrote, adding that the lack of perimeter creation remains a major issue in a loaded Western Conference.
Dallas’ offseason was headlined by landing the No. 1 overall pick and drafting Flagg. The former Duke standout is already drawing comparisons to young superstars. So, hopes were high for Dallas already. Moreover, the Mavericks also acquired Anthony Davis in the Doncic trade and brought in veteran guard D’Angelo Russell to stabilize the backcourt while Kyrie Irving continues to recover from a torn ACL.
ESPN forecasts a grim future for the Mavericks
Even with those additions, ESPN’s latest forecast paints a grim picture. The network’s analytics give Dallas only a 3.6 percent chance of securing a playoff spot outright and a 91.5 percent chance of missing the postseason entirely. The Mavericks’ odds of earning home-court advantage sit at zero percent.
While some analysts, including PHNX’s Gerald Bourguet, believe Dallas could compete for a play-in spot if Davis stays healthy, most insiders agree the Mavericks’ fate hinges on Irving’s return. The veteran guard’s leadership and shot creation remain critical for a roster loaded with untested youth and injury-prone veterans.
Despite ESPN’s bleak projection, optimism still lingers in Dallas. Flagg’s arrival has energized the fan base, and Davis has expressed confidence that the team can surpass expectations. The Mavericks have not missed the playoffs in consecutive seasons since 2019, and team executives insist that the franchise’s young core can evolve faster than projections suggest.
If Dallas manages to keep its stars healthy and find chemistry early, the Mavericks could once again prove doubters wrong. But as it stands, ESPN’s prediction reflects a harsh reality: the Mavericks’ climb back to contention will be anything but easy.
