The calendar has officially flipped to March, which means that bubble talk is heating up around the country. Every game is important for the teams right around the cut line as shifting happens daily around the bubble.
In a somewhat surprising twist, Auburn basketball is one of those teams right on the cut line despite holding a firm spot in the AP top 25 coming into the season. Of course, this year feels a lot different than last season did for Auburn, when the Tigers went into the NCAA Tournament as the No. 1 overall seed and made a run all the way to the Final Four.
The Tigers had a major shake-up right before the start of this season when head coach Bruce Pearl retired out of nowhere, promoting his son, Steven, to be the new head coach. After a solid start to the year, Auburn lost six of its seven games in February before getting back on track with a win over LSU on Tuesday night.
With one game to go in the regular season, Auburn is in the projected field according to some Bracketologists and out according to others. ClutchPoints' latest Bracketology, which came before the LSU win, had Auburn in the First Four Out with work to do to get into the field.
What chances does Auburn have left to make an impression, and what needs to happen for it to make the NCAA Tournament?
Auburn's current NCAA Tournament resume
With one game left to go in the regular season, Auburn has just a 16-14 record, which usually wouldn't get you anywhere close to the NCAA Tournament. However, the Tigers played a very difficult schedule in non-conference play and racked up a ton of Quad 1 opportunities in the SEC, and the difficulty of that schedule is what still has them in contention.
The final game Auburn played in February might have been the most costly, as it picked up its only Quad 3 loss of the year with a home loss to Ole Miss. That is the kind of loss that will be used against the Tigers when they are compared to a team like Miami (OH) if the RedHawks do end up on the bubble.
Auburn is 2-2 in Quad 2 games, with a home loss (in controversial fashion) against Texas A&M and a road loss to a non-tournament team in Mississippi State.
The Quad 1 games, simply when it comes to the volume of high-quality games that Auburn has played, is where the tournament case is made. Pearl's squad has played a mind-boggling 16 Quad 1 games, getting five wins including a victory on the road against Florida, which has become one of the best wins in the entire country. Auburn will get a chance for another marquee win on the road on Saturday against Alabama, and it might need it to improve its standing.
Auburn's predictive metrics have dipped off a bit from where they were early in the season, which eats away at one of the Tigers' strongest resume points. Auburn is also down to No. 39 in the NET rankings, which doesn't really work for or against it.
The metric that is working against Auburn to a degree is wins above bubble, which the selection committee has relied heavily on in past seasons. Auburn currently ranks 47th in the country in WAB, but trails a number of bubble teams that it is competing for spots with such as VCU, Santa Clara, New Mexico, SMU and others. If Pearl and company don't improve that number in the next week, it could be the downfall of their tournament hopes.
Path remaining
As mentioned above, Auburn has just one chance remaining in the regular season to make an impression. That will come in Tuscaloosa on Saturday night, a very tough place to win where Auburn will be a pretty heavy underdog. Following that game, the Tigers will head to Nashville for the SEC Tournament, where a very tough road awaits. Based on the current standings, Auburn would be the No. 11 seed.
That would have Auburn play Ole Miss in the first round, a game that could only hurt the Tigers' resume at this point. Then, if Auburn can get revenge for Saturday's home loss, it would take on Vanderbilt in the second round.
At this point, Auburn likely needs two wins in its next three games. If the Tigers lose to Alabama on Saturday, getting to the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament, which would include a Quad 1 win in the second round of the conference tournament against Vanderbilt or someone else, would be a must. A win over Alabama on Saturday would give them a little more wiggle room, but would still have them on the edge of their seat come Selection Sunday.
Around the country, Auburn will be rooting hard for Miami (OH), Utah State, and Saint Louis all to win their conference tournaments to prevent bid stealers. A bid to March Madness is far from guaranteed at this point, but Auburn still has everything to play for as the season winds down.
