March is here! Less than a week remains in college basketball's regular season, and only a few at-large spots in the NCAA Tournament are up for grabs. Of course, that number will naturally shrink in the coming weeks as bid stealers emerge, starting with some mid-major conference tournaments getting underway this week that will change the landscape of Bracketology as the tournament approaches.
As for the power conference teams and most of the bubble, teams have two more regular season games to make an impression on the committee before battling it out in their conference tournaments. Those bubble teams have a lot at stake, and they have a lot to prove and not a lot of time to prove it.
Let's talk about that bubble. The teams near the cut line had a brutal weekend for the most part, with multiple brutal losses impacting tournament standing. Cal suffered a 16-point home loss to 18-loss Pittsburgh while UCLA took a shocking loss on the road against Minnesota. Late Saturday night, Auburn took its 14th loss of the season with a home defeat against a dismal Ole Miss team.
Just above the bubble, UCF, SMU, NC State and Iowa all took surprising losses to teams near the bottom of their conference, so it was a tough weekend for the middle of the pack. How did that change the outlook of the projected bracket with a week to go?
Bold = Automatic Qualifier
Note – Now that conference play is in full swing, the AQ for each conference is given to the team in first place in the conference standings as of the morning of Monday, March 2.
East Region
1. Duke
16. UMBC/Bethune-Cookman
8. Villanova
9. UCF
5. Arkansas
12. Utah Valley
4. Kansas
13. Stephen F. Austin
6. Wisconsin
11. Miami (OH)
3. Texas Tech
14. East Tennessee State
7. Utah State
10. Missouri
2. Illinois
15. Central Arkansas
Midwest Region
1. Michigan
16. Long Island
8. Saint Louis
9. Clemson
5. St. John's
12. Yale
4. Virginia
13. High Point
6. Tennessee
11. TCU
3. Michigan State
14. Troy
7. Miami (FL)
10. Texas
2. Houston
15. Portland State
West Region
1. Arizona
16. Merrimack
8. Iowa
9. NC State
5. North Carolina
12. South Florida
4. Alabama
13. UNC Wilmington
6. BYU
11. Santa Clara/Indiana
3. Nebraska
14. North Dakota State
7. St. Mary's
10. Texas A&M
2. Florida
15. Navy
South Region
1. UConn
16. Howard/Tennessee State
8. SMU
9. Georgia
5. Vanderbilt
12. Belmont
4. Gonzaga
13. Liberty
6. Louisville
11. Ohio State/New Mexico
3. Purdue
14. Hawai'i
7. Kentucky
10. UCLA
2. Iowa State
15. Wright State
Bubble Watch
Last Four Byes: Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, TCU
Last Four In: Santa Clara, Ohio State, New Mexico, Indiana
First Four Out: VCU, Auburn, Virginia Tech, San Diego State
Next Four Out: West Virginia, USC, California, Seton Hall
Multi-bid leagues
SEC – 10
Big Ten – 10
ACC – 8
Big 12 – 8
Big East – 3
WCC – 3
Mountain West – 2
Games of the Week
Monday, March 2 – Duke at NC State
Monday, March 2 – Iowa State at Arizona
Thursday, March 5 – Michigan at Iowa
Saturday, March 7 – Arkansas at Missouri
Saturday, March 7 – Vanderbilt at Tennessee
Saturday, March 7 – Louisville at Miami
Saturday, March 7 – Florida at Kentucky
Saturday, March 7 – North Carolina at Duke
Saturday, March 7 – Texas Tech at BYU
Sunday, March 8 – Michigan State at Michigan
Biggest storylines to watch
Miami (OH)'s bubble case has become the hottest topic in college basketball in recent weeks, as the still-undefeated RedHawks continue to march through the MAC. Miami's metrics still are't very good and it possesses just one win against the top two quadrants, but an unbeaten team, or one with just one loss in a conference tournament game, is going to be hard to leave out of the field. The RedHawks are currently our top team on the No. 11 line, putting them in a good position to make the tournament even with a loss.
UConn took over the final No. 1 seed after Iowa State lost to Texas Tech on Saturday, but at fourth spot behind Duke, Michigan and Arizona is still very much up for grabs as March gets underway.
Behind the top seeds, there is a lot of shuffling going on in the 2-4 range. Florida continues to ascend and is now our No. 6 overall team, putting it safely on the two line. However, rough weeks from Purdue, Illinois, Kansas, Virginia and Gonzaga have caused a lot of movement. Those teams are all grouped closely together along with the likes of Texas Tech, Michigan State and a few others.
Down by the bubble, New Mexico moves into the field with a comeback win over San Diego State at The Pit on Saturday, while the Aztecs drop into the First Four Out. Ohio State also jumps into the field with a big win over Purdue on Sunday, just the Buckeyes' second Quad 1 win of the season. Out goes Auburn following that loss to Ole Miss, and the Tigers have a chance to get a win against LSU before a massive game against Alabama on Saturday.
