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The USC Trojans football team enters the 2023 season with grand ambitions of not only capturing the Pac-12 title, but securing a spot in the College Football Playoff. Last season, the Trojans made their much awaited comeback to college football relevancy under new head coach Lincoln Riley. After finishing the previous season at 4-8, they were one of the four teams seemingly on their way to the playoff, ranking fourth headed into the Pac-12 Championship. However, suffering only their second loss of the season, both from Utah, they lost that game and were left out of the playoff.
If the Trojans hope to get back in playoff contention in 2023, their road may be even more difficult, as the Pac-12 looks to be the strongest it has been in sometime. Here's what must happen for USC to make the 2023 College Football Playoff:
Caleb Williams' health and performance
A central pillar of USC football's aspirations lies in the hands of their star quarterback, Caleb Williams. The young phenom is not only considered a Heisman hopeful but also touted as the potential number one pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Williams' ability to stay healthy and consistently perform at an elite level will be paramount for the Trojans' success. How USC fares this season will ultimately ride upon his arm. That means he's going to need his offensive line to protect him.
The unit has the opportunity to surpass last season's performance that ranked 48th in sack percentage, with the addition of transfer portal acquisitions in Michael Tarquin from Florida, Emmanuel Pregnon from Wyoming, and Jarrett Kingston from Washington State. However, concerns arise due to the lack of depth at the tackle position, which could prove problematic. If Williams goes down, you could probably just say so does USC. The guys up front are just as important as Williams is to this offense.
With that being said, USC's starting quarterback situation is the envy of many teams in the country, as the other usual playoff contenders such as Ohio State, Clemson, Georgia and Alabama will have question marks at the position, with three having first time starters. This certainly sets USC football apart. Plus, Riley's history of maximizing quarterback talent bodes well for USC's offense, who last season ranked fifth in points-per-game, third in yards-per-game and had the third overall offense in the country, per TeamRankings.com. Offense is USC's bread and butter, specifically with Williams at quarterback and is what will carry them for the 2023 season. Which leads us to the defense.
Overcoming the stigma of Lincoln Riley historically bad defenses
One significant hurdle for USC football is dispelling the stigma of historically bad defenses under Riley that has seemed to carry over from his time with the Oklahoma Sooners. While Riley has proven himself as one of the best offensive minds in the country, his defenses while as a head coach have been nothing short of awful. In his five seasons as head coach at Oklahoma, his defenses ranked as so: 68th, 101st, 64th, 28th and 60th. And yet, somehow, he still escaped with a 55-10 overall record and landed one of the premier coaching jobs in the country.
It's not as if USC was ranking high defensively before Riley got there. USC's defensive struggles have been a glaring weakness in recent years. In fact, Riley's Oklahoma defenses and USC's were eerily similar from 2017-2021: 60th, 65th, 78th, 46th, and 103rd.
Last year's 94th ranked defense was much the same, in that they couldn't make stops, specifically on third down and in the redzone. Needless to say, the Trojans must showcase significant improvements in tackling, coverage, and preventing big plays. While the Trojans' defense one strength was creating consistent turnovers, it's not sustainable for a team looking to make the playoffs.
Navigating tough Pac-12 schedule
In what is likely to be a highly competitive Pac-12 conference in 2023 — and maybe the last one — no team can afford to overlook any opponent. For USC to secure a playoff spot, they must navigate the treacherous path unscathed, avoiding any upsets along the way, as it is unlikely the playoff committee with allow any team from the Pac-12 in the top-4 with a blemish.
The Trojans toughest stretch will be late in the season, when they will face off against a tough Washington team at the Coliseum who finished the season as the highest-ranked team in the Pac-12 at 12. Then, a week later, they'll head to Autzen Stadium to face Oregon, which could have major playoff implications as the Ducks have only gotten better headed into 2023. Finally, to end the regular season, they'll have crosstown rival UCLA at the Coliseum.
These games alone pose significant hurdles, but there is one particular matchup that adds an intriguing element to USC's schedule, that if looked over, could present real trouble.
In their fifth game of the season, USC will travel to Folsom Field to face off against a completely facelifted Buffaloes team led by Deion Sanders. This encounter could potentially be a monumental showdown and present the possibility of an upset, especially if Sanders' team starts gaining momentum leading up to the game.
This is not to forget longtime rival Notre Dame. Set to take place at the iconic Notre Dame Stadium in mid-October, this annual clash will be televised on NBC and feature newly acquired former Wake Forest quarterback, Sam Hartman.
Should USC succeed over this arduous schedule unscathed, they'll be deserving of a playoff berth.
