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Phew. 2020-2021 was a weird year for Fantasy Football, wasn't it? If you ended up winning your league, congratulations because everybody else and all their grandmothers were shooting in the dark as the world turned upside down. And we're not just talking COVID here, either (here's looking at you, Tennessee).
Of the top consensus picks going into this past season, literally zero lived up to the hype. Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley were banished to the injury shadow realm, as was Michael Thomas, and Zeke eroded in a mirror image of the Cowboys' season hopes. Rookies Jonathan Taylor and Clyde Edwards-Helaire were up and down, the Eagles imploded, and Jacksonville suddenly found a franchise-level running back?
This all makes next season all the more important for every armchair GM out there. Let's get your money back, shall we? Starting with the quarterback position.
To preface: no way in hell should you be drafting anyone but a running back or wide receiver in the first or second rounds. Depending on your league's rules (how hard it steers into PPR territory, points per yard thrown, points per touchdown, etc.), these two positions are simply at a premium for the value that they hold. Rushing and catching are simply more valuable in Fantasy Football than whoever is throwing the football, not to mention that you will more than likely find great value at quarterback late in the draft.
But, let's nix all that. Let's say that it's the fourth or fifth round, and you've managed to snag two talented RB's, a WR1, maybe even a solid TE if you're feeling saucy. Who goes first among Fantasy Football's most valuable throwers of the football, these kings of the air? Let's look:
First: Patrick Mahomes
No hot takes here: if Patrick Mahomes isn't taken by an absolute lunatic in the first or second round by your glue-huffing cousin-in-law, you are kidding yourself if you don't take him if he is on the board when you're ready to take a QB. Patrick Mahomes, short of injury, is the closest thing to a consistent, week-to-week fantasy football sure bet.
He was the consensus QB4 this past season, and every single player ahead of him has measurable questions surrounding them. Josh Allen might have some proving to do to avoid “one-hit wonder” status, Aaron Rodgers has been wildly up-and-down over the past two seasons and is a little bit matchup-dependent, and Kyler Murray fell off a cliff towards the end of the year, as injuries hampered the rushing ability that made him a fantasy darling earlier in the season.
As Patrick Mahomes proved during the Super Bowl, he is legitimately matchup-proof. In the big game against a motivated Tampa Bay defense, ailing with turf toe and getting sacked left and right, and literally falling over, he managed to hit most of his passes. Those missed throws, more than anything, should tell you why Patrick Mahomes is the safest bet at quarterback. If he is available even against the best defenses in the league, he will always find a way to deliver.
Second: Russell Wilson
Now we start to get into questionable territory. And the worst part is, the questions aren't even necessarily Russell Wilson's fault.
No one can deny the inhuman push Wilson made through week 9 of this past season to earn his first-ever MVP award. Russell was cooking: only one week with a QB rating below 100, averaging over three touchdowns per game with only eight INTs.
And then, all of a sudden, he wasn't anymore. Starting with the Rams in Week 10, Russell Wilson didn't necessarily plummet from the top of the mountain (he still finished the season as the QB6), but he certainly fell back down to earth, with a TD to INT ratio of just 12 to 5.
Funnily enough, about halfway through the season, many fantasy football pundits were excited for Seattle's RBs to get back in the healthy column, which would open up more time to Wilson. However, the opposite seemed to have happened.
Whether the blame can be placed on a weak offensive line, Pete Carroll's QB-unfriendly scheme or even that Wilson just got burned out is a moot point. The issue going into this season is that Russell Wilson is dependent on too many wildcards on his team to give sustained QB1 value. He can definitely take you to the promised land, and is guaranteed for about 20 FPTS every night he's out, but with the added rift that is growing between him and Seahawks brass, his talent can only take him so far in this ranking.
Third: Dak Prescott
Oh, what to do with you, Dak Prescott. The king of garbage yardage and offering no actual value for your team without sufficient support. Prescott was on the verge of something special for fantasy football, shooting up from averaging just over 20 FPTS/game in 19-20 to over 26 in 20-21. My goodness, what he could have done with the slow-motion train wreck that was the Cowboys' defense constantly setting you up for big fourth-quarter comebacks…and with CeeDee Lamb as a beautiful sidearm complement to Amari Cooper.
Alas, 'twas not to be. Instead, he suffered one of the more gruesome injuries in recent sports history, and the athleticism and poise that made you who he is were called into question.
If this were any other season, any other situation, he might have even competed with the rushing gods at QB for the QB1 pre-season projection. If someone gambles on him and they hit, woof, what a glorious value that will be, most likely slipping to the 8th or 9th round of most drafts.
The football and fantasy worlds are rooting for you Dak. But for now, they are scared, for your sake, and theirs.
