The Kansas City Chiefs have their backs against the wall coming into Week 12 of the NFL season after a crippling loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 11. Now, the Chiefs are sitting at just 5-5 on the season, their worst start in a decade, and are largely out of the AFC West race with the Broncos sitting at 9-2.
Now, according to most analytics sites, the Chiefs' playoff chances sit just above 50%, but those numbers will continue to tank if they fall to 5-6 with a loss to the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday.
The Colts have been one of the big surprises of the season so far in 2025, racing out to an 8-2 record through 10 games. Daniel Jones is having a resurgent season for Indianapolis and Shane Steichen and company are chasing the No. 1 seed thanks to an MVP-type season from Jonathan Taylor.
Despite the differing records of the two teams, the Chiefs are favored coming into the weekend. Can they deliver on that and get back above .500 after Week 12?
Chiefs must stop the run
The first priority for anybody trying to slow down this Colts offense is stopping the run. It's much easier said than done to slow down Jonathan Taylor, who is currently having a historic season that has him in talks for both the MVP and Offensive Player of the Year awards. Taylor is already up over 1,100 yards on the season, nearly 200 more than anyone else in football.
On a per-play basis, the gulf between the Colts star and everyone else gets even wider. Taylor is currently generating 0.16 EPA per rush, the equivalent of a top-five passing game in the NFL this season. James Cook of the Buffalo Bills is in second place at 0.04 among players with at least 100 carries, so there is a gigantic margin between Taylor and the rest of the league.
The Chiefs had the task of slowing down Cook back in Week 9, and they did a half-decent job. The star Bills running back racked up 114 yards on the ground, but it took him 27 carries to get there. If the Chiefs can hold Taylor to a similar clip, they will have their chances to get off the field.
The season-long numbers for Kansas City are a little bit less encouraging. the Chiefs are a slightly below-average defense when it comes to EPA per rush allowed and like to play with light boxes, so Taylor will have chances to get going on Sunday.
Can Daniel Jones turn around recent slump?
Daniel Jones has been one of the stories of the NFL so far this season, but his last few games have shown some of the bad tendencies he showed that got him booted out of New York.
The new Colts quarterback only has three games this season where he finished with negative EPA, and two of them were his last two games against the Steelers and Falcons. Indianapolis is coming off of a bye week, so Steichen should have a good plan to help Jones success on Sunday. However, this downward trend is troubling for a Colts team that has championship aspirations based on the way the season has gone so far.
A lot of that recent regression can be attributed to pressure and the pressure and the increased amount of negative plays that Jones is taking recently. The former Giants starter was only sacked nine times in the first eight games of the season, but he has been taken down 12 times in the last two contests. When those sacks put the Colts behind the chains, bad things usually follow for Jones and company.
The Chiefs haven't excelled at getting pressure so far this season, but they do blitz on over 30% of opponent dropbacks. The Colts have weapons capable of getting open against the man coverage that Steve Spagnuolo will play behind those pressure looks, but Jones will have to be sharp and get the ball out quickly to take advantage.
This could be a big day for the Chiefs' offense
While the scoreboard hasn't always shown it, the Chiefs have had one of the best offenses in the NFL this season since getting Xavier Worthy back from injury and Rashee Rice back from his suspension to start the season.
In what is somewhat of a surprise given the reputation of the Chiefs, Kansas City ranks second in the NFL in EPA per rush and seventh in success rate. The Chiefs are miles behind the Colts on the ground, but they can so enough to supplement the passing game.
Through the air, Patrick Mahomes is still capable of carving up any defense on his day, but he has been in a bit of a slump recently. Two of Mahomes' worst games this season came in his last two games against a Bills defense that pressured him on more than half of his dropbacks and a Broncos defense that is one of, if not the best unit in the league.
On the other side of the ball, the Colts defense has just been average on a per-play basis, both against the run and the pass. They're just above average at stuffing runs and getting sacks despite getting pressure on a solid 36.8% of dropbacks. That lack of a true elite skill on that side of the ball should allow the Chiefs to stay ahead of the chains and keep the playbook open for Andy Reid and his staff.
There's nothing to suggest that this Indianapolis defense can bother Mahomes to the extent that the Bills and the Broncos did, even after trading for Sauce Gardner from the New York Jets. As a result, this could be a get-right game for this Chiefs offense.
