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The Arizona Coyotes have entered a rebuild since last season came to a close, dealing away key players for future assets. The likes of Christian Dvorak, Conor Garland, Adin Hill, Darcy Kuemper and Oliver Ekman-Larsson were all shipped out in order to acquire draft picks and young prospects.
With the NHL trade deadline a few months away and some big names still remaining on their depleted roster, the Coyotes likely aren't done selling off pieces. That said, one player the Coyotes have to be very careful about moving on from is defenseman Jakob Chychrun.
The 23-year-old Chychrun is in his sixth season and leads the Coyotes in ice time per game. His name has started to come up more in trade rumors lately, as just about any team in the league would likely be happy to add him to their defense group.
Obviously, the Coyotes could get a great return for the defender, which could point to the idea of speeding up the rebuilding process. Chychrun provides excellent value for his $4.6 million cap hit and is signed until 2025, meaning teams would be willing to pay a huge price to get him.
While a top defenseman and a rebuilding team don't always make for a fit though, there may be more reasons not to trade Chychrun.
In debating a trade for Chychrun, we should consider that the Coyotes, who are also going through other issues, are likely aiming to be competitive again in about three or four years from now, just based on the typical length of a rebuild.
As mentioned, Chychrun is not like he's in his late 20s and on an expiring contract. Given his age, he should still have nearly a decade of quality hockey left in him. There is his contract status to consider, as he'd be due for a new deal right around when the team is likely aiming to compete (maybe 2025), but we'll loop back to that in a bit.
Let's say the Coyotes decide to trade Chychrun now for a package of future assets. In doing this, they're likely setting themselves up for a dilemma down the road. With Chychrun gone, they would basically have to find a way to replace him in a few years from now to avoid further delaying their timeline to be competitive.
Arizona historically hasn't been a great market for attracting free agents so if the team would deal Chychrun now, the options to fill the hole he leaves in the defense group would be limited. The Coyotes would basically hope some of the draft picks they're stockpiling turn out to be a player of his caliber or trade a package of future assets similar to the return they would receive for him in a few years to get another top defender. No matter what, there's a good chance it ends up being a sideways move for the organization.
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His contract status, however, is something to consider. He'd be 27 years old by the time his current deal expires and would likely command a huge extension at that point. But if the Coyotes do feel as though he's willing to stick around long-term, they shouldn't move him unless they can get a massive return.
But what would that need to look like?
At this point, the Coyotes have collected a huge amount of draft picks. So while draft picks would need to be part of the return, they shouldn't be the centerpiece. If Chychrun goes to a contender, the draft picks the Coyotes would get back are likely late first-rounders, meaning the odds of them actually turning out to be a player of Chychrun's caliber aren't overly high.
The Coyotes would need at least one prospect who they trust will end up providing the same value that Chychrun does right now, but in about three or four years down the road. That's not an easy find, and in reality, there are few players that are ever a lock to reach a certain position in an NHL lineup.
After that is when high draft picks and/or other prospects should be included so that in addition to essentially breaking even with a great prospect, the Coyotes now have a chance to add an extra key player or two, based on how they use those added assets.
It limits the market for a trade partner, as Chychrun would basically have to go to a team confident enough in its ability to contend right now that it would be willing to move likely its best prospect, as well as one or even multiple high draft picks. But if he's going to be dealt, that's what the Coyotes need in return.
Given Chychrun's role with the team and the value he could provide for the foreseeable future, any deal involving the defender has to be treated with extreme caution. The Coyotes don't need to trade Chychrun right now and they have to be sure that if they deal him, they're getting back a significant return. If that's not an option, they'd be in a better spot by simply keeping him around.
