The Washington Capitals were one of the major surprises of 2024-25. After sneaking into the playoffs in 2023-24, expectations were a playoff berth at best the next season. The Caps ended up being the best team in the Eastern Conference. It was led by Alex Ovechkin, as he broke the all-time goals record. As the team attempts to duplicate the success from last year, a new X-factor is going to step up for Washington.
Ovechkin is the best player in Capitals history, and one of the best players in NHL history. Ovi missed time in the 2024-25 season due to a broken leg. Regardless, he scored 44 goals, hitting the 40-goal marker for the ninth time in 11 years. It also brought him to 897 goals in his NHL career.
Ovechkin was injured on the first day of training camp, but he is still expected to be ready for the regular season. If this is his last season with the team, he is sure to put on a show. He hopes to end his career lifting the Stanley Cup one more time. Still, he is not going to be the X-factor this year that will decide if he gets to have one more parade in DC.
Dylan Strome plays the support role
While Ovechkin finished with 73 points, he was second on the team in points last year. The leader of the team in points was Dylan Strome. He finished last season with 29 goals, good for fourth on the team. Still, his 53 assists led the team last year as he played all 82 games. It was the best season of Strome's career, as he has continued to grow in Washington.
Before his time in Washington, the former third overall pick's best campaign was 2018-19, splitting time with the Chicago Blackhawks and Arizona Coyotes. That season, he lit the lamp 20 times and added 37 assists.
In his first two seasons with the Caps, he scored 23 goals and then 27 goals while having more than 40 assists each year. Last year, the Canadian center set career highs in both goals and assists. Moreover, he was vital to the success of multiple players last season.
He was a major help to the blue line last season. When Strome was on the ice with John Carlson, the Capitals scored 60 times while giving up just 26 goals. Furthermore, when he was on the ice with Jakob Chychrun, the team scored 46 goals while giving up just 28.
The biggest beneficiary of Strome being on the ice was Ovi. Ovechkin's expected goal rate went up nearly 10 percentage points when his center joined him on the ice. Meanwhile, the team scored 79 of their 286 goals when the two were paired together. That is 27.6 percent of the team's goals that came when Ovi and Strome teamed up. Strome is vital to the team's success, but he is not the X-factor this year.
Logan Thompson is the X-factor for the Capitals
Of the teams that had a goaltender inside the Top 10 in save percentage in the regular season, nine of them made the playoffs. Furthermore, of the teams with a goaltender in the Top 10 in goals against average, all of them went to the playoffs. One of those goaltenders was Logan Thompson. He was 31-6-6 with a 2.49 goals against average and a .910 save percentage. That placed him inside the Top 10 in wins, goals against average, and save percentage.
Winning in the postseason takes solid goaltending as well. Sergei Bobrovsky had a 2.20 goals against average and a .914 save percentage in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Thompson was nearly identical with a 2.41 goals against average and a .917 save percentage.
Of his five playoff losses, he has a save percentage over .900 and gave up two or fewer goals twice. As the offense improves with young talent continuing to grow, those losses will turn into wins for the Caps, which could help them make it back to the Cup Finals.
Meanwhile, Thompson keeps the team on track. It was not until the end of the season when he was injured in his final game that he lost two times in a row. He was nearly unbeatable going up to the 4-Nations Break. The netminder was 21-2-5 heading into the break. If the Caps are going to make a run, he needs to finish a season as strong as he started last season.
In 2024-25, he was 28-4-3 when playing a full game and giving up three or fewer goals in the regular season. That is the team winning nearly 80 percent of the time. The goalie was similar in the playoffs, going 5-2 with one overtime loss when giving up three or fewer goals. If the team is winning between 70 and 80 percent of the time when Thompson is playing well, they will win another Cup, making the netminder the biggest X-factor this year for the Capitals.
