The Baltimore Orioles are on the road to take on the Cleveland Guardians on Friday night. This game will continue our MLB odds series as we hand out an Orioles-Guardians prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the game.
Orioles-Guardians Projected Starters
Dean Kremer vs. Carlos Carrasco
Dean Kremer (4-7) with a 4.20 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 75 innings pitched, 73K/29BB, .22o oBA
Last Start: vs. San Diego Padres: Loss, 6 innings, 7 hits, 4 runs, 1 earned, 1 walk, 7 strikeouts
2024 Road Splits: 7 starts, 3.05 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 38.1 innings pitched, 37K/13BB, .174 oBA
Carlos Carrasco (3-9) with a 5.68 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 95 innings pitched, 79K/27BB, .283 oBA
Last Start: at Philadelphia Phillies: Loss, 3.2 innings, 6 hits, 6 runs, 1 walk, 5 strikeouts
2024 Home Splits: 8 starts, 5.36 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 42 innings pitched, 38K/11BB, .307 oBA
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Orioles-Guardians Odds
Baltimore Orioles: -1.5 (+142)
Moneyline: -112
Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-172)
Moneyline: -104
Over: 9 (-112)
Under: 9 (-108)
How to Watch Orioles vs. Guardians
Time: 7:10 PM ET/4:10 PM PT
TV: MASN, Bally Sports Great Lakes
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Orioles Will Cover The Spread/Win
Dean Kremer does not have the best stats, but he has been very good on the road. Kremer's ERA is more than two runs better when he is pitching away from Baltimore. Opponents also bat 90 points lower off him when he pitches on the road. Kremer's best chance at pitching well comes in this game because it is on the road. If Kremer can continue to pitch well on the road, the Orioles will be able to win this game.
The Orioles are facing a struggling pitcher. Carrasco allows opponents to hit .283 off him on the season, and .307 during home games. In July, Carrasco allowed opponents to hit .301, so he has become very hittable lately. The Orioles have one of the top offenses in the league, and they arguably have the most power in the league. If they can get the ball in the air in this game, the Orioles will win.
Why The Guardians Will Cover The Spread/Win
Kremer is pitching well on the road, but that does not mean the Guardians will not have him around. The Guardians do not swing and miss a lot, even when they chase pitches off the plate. This means the Guardians make a lot of contact, just not all of that contact is good. Cleveland should be able to make plenty of contact in this game, though. If they can find a few barrels, and maybe elevate the ball a little bit, the Guardians will win this game.
The Guardians need to get to Kremer in this game. The good news is Kremer allows a very high barrel percentage. In fact, he is in just the third percentile in barrel percentage. Along with that, Kremer has an xERA that is more than a run higher than his actual ERA. The Guardians should be able to do a lot of damage in this game, which will help them pull off the victory.
Final Orioles-Guardians Prediction & Pick
These are two very good teams. However, I would not be surprised to see this game be a little bit more high-scoring. When it comes to higher-scoring games, I like the Orioles to have the advantage. They have the better offense, and I think they will put up quite a few runs in this game. I will take the Orioles to not only win this game but cover the spread, as well.
Click here for more betting news and predictions
Final Orioles-Guardians Prediction & Pick: Orioles -1.5 (+142)
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