Third-year head coach Willie Green's first two years were mostly spent stitching together patchwork rotations from skeleton crews, yet he kept the New Orleans Pelicans in the postseason conversation. Now with a revamped staff and relatively healthy roster around two former All-Stars, Green has guided the team to one of the best starts in franchise history. More than a few indicators suggest this Zion Williamson-led team is too talented to get stuck to an NBA Play-In Tournament spot.
The Pelicans (28-21) had the most challenging schedule to start the year but wrapped up a tough January slate with an 8-7 record. Williamson then hit a game-winner to kick off Black History Month with a one-point road win over Victor Wembanyama's San Antonio Spurs. They reeled off those victories despite not having a rest advantage the entire month. That is a good sign this team is finally finding its identity, one forged by Green's defense-first philosophies.
The locker room's resiliency is paying off and there are plenty of encouraging Top-10 stats to lean on for the rest of the season. Stat number one is the team's road record. The Pelicans are 14-11 away from the Smoothie King Center. Their game travels well on long business trips and New Orleans has one more four-game road trip before the NBA All-Star break.
The Pelicans will play six games over the next 10 days, with five of those matchups against likely lottery teams. They've been leaning more heavily on Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and big man safety valve Jonas Valanciunas. Sticking with what they do well should earn New Orleans a few more victories before their mid-February mini-vacations. Fixing their fatal flaws in the final five minutes is the other priority.
Pelicans lacking in one title-contending offensive stat
The team's traditional stats are mostly positive but there is one glaring issue. The Pelicans are 10th overall in free throw attempts per 100 possessions but unfortunately make only 75.9% of those shots, good for 25th overall. New Orleans is dead last by a wide 9% margin in clutch situations at the line, hitting on only 60% of those opportunities. Choking away games at the charity stripe cannot be blamed on any coach at this level. Making free throws to close out games in crunch time falls on the players.
New Orleans should be accustomed to the NBA Playoffs pace in a few months though. The Pelicans play at the 19th-slowest pace but are sixth in points per 100 possessions over the last 15 games. The players are hearing the coaching staff's message on finishing possessions and taking more 3-pointers. Behind CJ McCollum's career year, the Pelicans are sixth in 3-point percentage. They are also ninth in offensive rebounding per 100 possessions.
Green has also stressed rebounding and taking care of the basketball at practically every press conference. Well, the Pelicans are clearing boards and carefully sharing the ball. The Pelicans are ninth in assists, commit the sixth-fewest turnovers per game, and have the fifth-highest assist-to-turnover ratio over the past month. Consistently being in the Top 10 of these major categories has been a good measuring stick for predicting the conference finalist.
Willie Green's defense-first philosophy filling the stat sheet
Green's Pelicans are a defense-first squad. While most second-round picks barely see the court, Herb Jones was inserted into the starting lineup months after being drafted. Pairing the Alabama product with Dyson Daniels is a big reason why New Orleans is second overall in contested 3-pointers, eighth in deflections, and recover the fourth-most loose balls.
No team boxes out better per game than New Orleans, who are sixth in rebounds per 100 possessions. They don't bail out other teams often either. The Pelicans have been whistled for the 10th-fewest personal fouls per contest and are second-best at defending the 3-point line. Opponents are still launching wayward threes though, because New Orleans is second-best in two-point field goal frequency. Other teams just cannot find space around the paint and run out of time on the shot clock to find a better look.
The Pelicans are sixth in Offensive Rating and eighth in Net Rating. Every stat except the free throw ledger suggests the Pelicans should be one of the better teams in the league. New Orleans is only sitting in seventh in the Western Conference because they've squandered away 16 double-digit leads and are 1-7 in close games. Win just half of those and they'd be fighting for first place instead of under the top-six cutoff line.
New Orleans certainly has what it takes to be a contender in the NBA, but in order to fight for a title, they will need to be as perfect as they can be.
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